The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch
Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: February 5, 2026

¡Buenos días, my friends!

Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokelevelzSolid on a #ThrasherMagThursday in Mammoth. Sunrise is hitting at 33º with a light ESE breeze. We’re staring down Day 29 of #SevereClear, but the vibe at the WWSRA Demo is fire. The 26/27 gear lineups are out, and testing conditions are “baller.” On-piste is 100% manicured; off-piste atop 23 was awesome yesterday, though a bit scratchy where the sun kissed it hard.

Heading back up to Tahoe after this morning’s on-mtn session for the Tahoe Freeride (TJFS) Stop #4 at Palisades this weekend. While we play in the sun, the “rift in the force” is finally timing out. Latest ECMWF AIFS guidance is firming-up a cold trough digging in Monday through Wednesday, opening the door for the first real round (#Not a BigDuckDumping) of #MaNatural in over a month.

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions as of 0516)
South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 21ºF

Truckee (KTRK): 19ºF

Palisades (Siberia 8,700’): 40ºF

Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 36ºF

KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6 9,100’): 41ºF

MammothMtn (Summit 11,034’): 33ºF

Winds (as of 0516):

HippieHaus: S 2mph

Donner Pass: NE 2/7mph

Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 13/18mph

Palisades (Siberia): E 10/18mph

Kirkwood (Chair 6): ESE 11/14mph

Mammoth (Summit): ESE 13/14mph

📡 The Morning Intel: AFD Comparison & Summary
The Consensus: High pressure is beginning its slow exit. We have one more weekend of “Spring in February” before the winter reboot on Monday.

Key Changes & Updates:

Friday’s “Blip”: Confidence has ticked up to 30% for light precip in Mono and Alpine counties tomorrow. Snow levels around 7,000’. Don’t expect a dump maybe 1" if the clouds cooperate.

The Monday Drop: Snow levels are verified to start at 7,500’+ on Sunday but will plummet to 4,000’ by Monday night.

QPF Trends: NWS Reno sees a 30-50% chance for precip across the Eastern Sierra starting late Sunday. Sacramento (STO) confirms the ridge is shifting East, allowing the trough to develop.

Nuance Check: REV is highlighting “slantwise visibility reductions” due to haze in the valleys, while STO is focused on a Dense Fog Advisory for the northern San Joaquin Valley (Stockton/Modesto), where visibilities are dropping to 1/4 mile.

⚠️ Weather Advisories
Tahoe/Sierra: None.

Sacramento Valley: DENSE FOG ADVISORY until noon today for the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report
Status: Low Danger (#KnowBeforeYouGo)

Central Sierra (Steve Reynaud): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Issued: Feb 4, 6:46 AM | Expires: Feb 5, 4:00 AM.

Bottom Line: LOW avalanche danger continues with avalanches remaining unlikely today. Soft cold snow, spring snow, and variable snow surface conditions can all be found in the backcountry.

Eastside Region (Sean Smollen): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Issued: Feb 4, 7:00 AM | Expires: Feb 5, 7:00 AM.

Bottom Line: Avalanches continue to be unlikely. Approach steep slopes with caution and monitor for warming.

Note: Riders and enthusiasts are to go to the Sierra Avalanche Center’s website for the latest updates and reporting.

✈️ Tahoe Aviation Section
Status: VFR through Sunday.

Details: Light winds prevail. Main concern is Slantwise Visibility for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV due to stagnant air and valley inversions. Patchy fog possible for KTRK in the early mornings.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report
Water Temp: 44.0ºF (Delta: -0.1ºF).

Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.52 feet (Delta: -0.01 ft).

Forecast: Sunny today (High 54º), turning mostly cloudy Friday (High 51º). Waves < 1 foot.

Safety Note: Still #ColderThanAWellDiggersASS. Don’t splash without a wetty.

🛣️ Road Status (as of 0516)
SR88, HWY50, I-80, 395: All clear. No traffic restrictions.

Live check: quickmap.dot.ca.gov

☁️ The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook
Weekend Pulse: High pressure dominates Saturday, but Sunday afternoon brings the “pre-game” winds—SW gusts up to 50+ mph over ridges.

Monday–Wednesday: The trough arrives. Highs drop from 50º down to the 30s at lake level. Small storms are expected to “spin up” in the trough, delivering snow in inches (approx. 0.5" liquid near the crest).

Extended Forecast: Valentine’s Day weekend is looking like the “Reload.” Ensembles show a broader trough digging in, potentially opening the door for wetter, deeper storms during the 3rd week of February as MJO Phase 3 kicks in.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop