The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: Wednesday, December 10, 2025

¡Buenos días, my friends! Cup'O'Joe in hand, and the #StokeLevelSteady at 11.6 on this #WisdomWednesday. It's another Dual-sport day ahead as the sun rises. The snow machines are silent across the Sierra as we continue to experience inversions around the Basin. Reports from Heavenly, MammothMtn, Mt. Rose, and KirkwoodMtn all echo the same sentiment: "Firm to start, semi-softening throughout the day - Carvalicious-cord." The Mtn Teams are working hard to keep what's open riding well. Be aware: early season conditions do exist, and even on-piste, we are beginning to see a few sharky zones exposed. Head on a swivel and respect the thin cover.

Weather ahead: Warm, sunny, light winds. We are in a rinse-and-repeat cycle of dry, mild weather into the weekend. Some prognosticators are hinting, chatting, and trying hard to connect a breakdown of the HP ridge to an incoming round of weather past the 10-day mark. From what I see and who I reference, it feels more like the 18th/19th range for a shift, with a possibility (not probability) of a snowy, white Christmas here at the #HippieHaus.

So, for now, my friends, patience and gratitude for what we have before us here in the Sierra. If you are in need of POW, look to our friends at Alta, Revy, Jackson, and way down south at AZ Snowbowl. Go get'cha some... 24hr NAM 3km Snow forecast models are available on the page here, to assist in'yr POWHunt'n decision-making process.

Off to HV for a few morning laps, then out to KirkwoodMtn for a few mid-morning laps. Two mountains, limited terrain—one day in the life.

Today's Intel

• 🚠 Bullwheels Turning: KirkwoodMtn, Heavenly, Mt Rose, MammothMtn, Palisades, Boreal, Northstar, Revelstoke.

• 🌡️ Temps: Unseasonably Warm. Highs 15-20º degrees above average (mid-50s to mid-60s). South Lake Tahoe could challenge the record high of 63° today.

• 🚗 Roads: ALL CLEAR in the Sierra. Dense Fog Advisory in the Sacramento/Solano Valleys (Hwy 50 / I-80).

The RS Mindset: While we wait for the pattern flip, we embrace the dual-sport life. Ski in the AM, bike or paddle in the PM. The storm door is locked here, but open elsewhere. If you stay, enjoy the "Tahoe Zonker Tan-Athon." #JustDoIt

Looking forward to the next 3–7 days:

• Potential Rain and Snow Outlook: Dry Pattern Continues. High pressure remains anchored through the weekend.

• Forecast Update / Changes:

• The Shift: Models continue to hint at a pattern change next week, but the trend is shifting wetter compared to yesterday.

• The Data: Latest ensembles show a 20-40% chance of light precip (0.25" liquid) arriving next Tuesday (Dec 16).

• The Catch: Snow levels look HIGH (8,000-9,000 ft), so this first pulse may not bring much help to the snowpack below the highest peaks.

• Snow Levels: N/A

• Temperatures: Near Record Warmth. Highs will be 10-15º degrees above average through the weekend.

• Winds / Wind Conditions: Light. Winds remain light and terrain-driven.

• Road Conditions: ALL CLEAR. Watch for brake checks on I-80 West.

The Weather Ahead | Temperatures | Winds | Winter

Forecasted Temperatures (Today's High / Tonight's Low):

• #HippieHaus (SLT / 6,380'): 60° / 37°

• Kirkwood (Base / 7,800'): 55° / 32°

• Truckee (North Shore / 5,800'): 58° / 25°

• Mammoth Mtn (Base / 8,900'): 48° / 30°

Timing of wind direction/wind speeds: Light/Variable winds today. No significant wind events expected.

Seven(7) Day forecast (Lake Level Highs/Lows):

• Today (Wed): 60° / 37° (Sunny, Near Record Warmth)

• Thursday: 59° / 35° (Sunny, Warm)

• Friday: 56° / 32° (Sunny)

• Saturday: 54° / 30° (Sunny)

• Sunday: 52° / 28° (Partly Cloudy)

• Monday: 50° / 26° (Cooling Trend)

• Tuesday: 48° / 28° (Chance of Rain/Snow High Elevation)

Sierra Avalanche Center (Tahoe / Carson Pass):

• Status: #LowTide.

• Hazard: #SnowSharks.

• Discussion: Shallow snowpack. Avalanche concerns exist in isolated areas where hard, supportable slabs of wind-drifted snow exist on top of weak sugary snow.

• Link: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center (Mammoth Zone):

• Status: #LowTide.

• Hazard: Shallow Obstacles.

• Discussion: Thin coverage. Northeast winds may have created isolated slabs.

• Link: https://bit.ly/EasternSierraAvalancheForecast

⚓ Marine Forecast for Lake Tahoe:

• Status: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

• TODAY: Sunny. Light winds. Highs 55-60. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

• TONIGHT: Clear. Light winds. Lows 37-44. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

• THURSDAY: Sunny. Light winds. Highs around 60.

• Water Temp: 49.0°F.

• Mariner Note: Glassy conditions. Highly recommend a 4/3 or 5/4 wetty if you are paddling/foiling due to cold water shock risk.

✈️ Aviation Forecast:

• Conditions: VFR prevails across all terminals.

• Hazards:

• Haze: Valley inversions could produce minor reductions in slantwise visibility each morning.

• FZFG (Freezing Fog): 50-70% chance for patchy Freezing Fog at KTRK (Truckee) between 10Z-16Z.

• Winds: Light winds. No significant turbulence or LLWS expected.

For #HippieHaus & Mammoth (NWS Reno):

• Records: Yesterday missed record highs by 3 degrees. Today brings another shot, but inversions may limit heating potential.

• Long Range Update: "The blocking pattern... looks to finally dislodge towards the middle of the month." Ensembles are trending wetter for next Tuesday, but snow levels remain high (8-9k ft).

• Wind: Light winds continue this week.

For Carson Pass / KirkwoodMtn Zone (NWS Sacramento):

• Valley Focus: Dense Fog Advisory (Solano/Yolo/Sacramento).

• Mountain Focus: "Increasingly mild temperatures with sunny skies and dry weather are expected over higher terrain."

On this #WisdomWednesday, we find balance. The skiing is firm but fun, the weather is warm, and the travel is easy. Enjoy the dual-sport days, keep your edges sharp, and stay tuned for the mid-month pattern shift. Patience is the practice.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop | RS#69

POWHUNT’n 24hr Snowfall Guidance West