The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA
Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
Time: 05:25 PST

¡Buenos días my friends,

Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokeLevelPinned, 13.6 ~ Snow falling, winds across the ridges are in the 50-70mph range, with overnight peaks in the 100+ range. Snowfall totals range by Elev and Aspect, with an average of 24" to 36" regionally. Lake level, here at the #HippieHaus, 8" solid with a 4" overnight total on the #HippieStick (6,350’), totaling 12".

KDAX and KBBX radar is thick this morning with two to three cells moving towards the Crest, centered South of Hwy50, however, covering the entire Sierra, from Donner down to Fresno and China Peak. This is another day of reset for the Mtn Teams, and for the BC snow to start settling. Use the resorts’ websites for terrain expansion plans, and use the links below for SAC if you are headed into the BC. Expect, upper Mtn lifts to possibly be on “Wind-Holds” due to the high-winds, and gusts in the 70+mph range (9,100’).

All in all, it’s zero to 100 here in Tahoe, lake level snow, copious amounts of #GorillaSnot #BaseBuilding #Sweetness, Mtn teams have a lot to do, expect more terrain, each day “Slow is steady, steady is fast”. Give those krews some kindness, love, and a few frosties when you see them. ALSO, massive call out to the CHP and CalTrans krews on I80 dealing with the Sh!t-show, up on Donner, and to the Krews on 50, and 88 for dealing with the “Smart-ones” - No chains, no common sense, and a complete lack of ability to read the signage on the roads - “Chains Required”…

Current Sector Data (Verified @ 0458 PST)

Regional Temperatures:

  • South Lake Tahoe (KTLV) at 6,308’: 31ºF

  • Truckee (KTRK) at 5,899’: 30ºF

  • Chair 6 Ridge (9,100’): 21ºF

  • Mammoth Mtn Race (MTH03) at 11,034’: 17ºF

Regional Winds (The Engine Room):

  • HippieHaus: 236º (SW) 10mph

  • Truckee: 219º (SW) 10mph

  • Donner Pass: 221º (S) 23mph

  • Carson Pass: 184º (S) 63mph sustained - 84mph gusts (Hurricane Force)

  • Mammoth Race (MTH03): 189º (SSW) 50mph

Roads (CalTrans @ 0458 PST):

  • Status: MESSY, SLICK, NASTY, SLOW’YR’ROLL

  • SR88: CLOSED from 3.5 mi east of Silver Lake to Kirkwood/Carson Spur due to snow. Chains Required from Cook’s Station to Woodfords. Carson Pass - Open with Chains Required from Pickett’s Junction to KirkwoodMtn.

  • HWY 50: Chains Required from 3 mi east of Kyburz to Meyers.

  • I-80: Chains Required from Baxter to the NV State Line.

  • CalTrans QuickMap: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

Forecast Update: Changes & Critical Nuances

⚠️ Active Advisories:

  • WINTER STORM WARNING: EXTENDED until 4:00 PM PST this afternoon for the Sierra (CAZ072, NVZ002) and Kirkwood area (CAZ071).

  • WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: Extended until 10:00 AM PST for Western NV Valleys (Reno/Carson/Minden).

  • AVALANCHE WARNING: In effect until 7:00 AM Friday for the Eastside.

The NWS Deep Dive (Changes from Yesterday): We have shifted from the “Two-Wave” prediction into a lingering convective pattern. Here is what has changed in the guidance overnight:

1. Warning Extension (NWS Reno):

  • The Change: Yesterday, the forecast hinted at a taper-off by morning. Today, NWS Reno has extended the Winter Storm Warning until 4:00 PM PST.

  • The Reason: A “final push of moisture” is tracking through, keeping snow showers active through the day. The heaviest bands will wrap up by late morning, but the storm isn’t done with us yet.

2. The Thunder-Snow Threat (NWS Sacramento):

  • The Change: The “isolated thunderstorm” risk has matured into a more active convective threat.

  • The Detail: Radar shows scattered thunderstorms developing along the Coast and shifting northeast. NWS Sacramento warns of “redeveloping lines of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms” throughout the day.

  • Impact: This means localized heavy snowfall rates (1-2"+ per hour), graupel, and erratic gusty winds are possible even as the main front passes.

3. Valley Snow Timing Shift:

  • The Change: The window for snow on the valley floors (Reno/Carson) has shifted.

  • The Detail: The best timing for valley accumulation is NOW through 9:00 AM. If you are commuting from the valleys to the hill, expect slick roads this morning.

✈️ Aviation Section

Current Status: MVFR / IFR / LIFR

  • Conditions: No-Go Day for visual flight rules.

  • Sierra Terminals (KTVL, KTRK, KMMH): Expect IFR/LIFR conditions through much of the morning with heavy snow. Conditions may lift to MVFR by late afternoon as snow lightens.

  • Runway Accumulations: KTVL/KMMH have a 50% chance of exceeding 6" of accumulation by this afternoon. KTRK has a 25% chance.

  • Hazards: Mountain Obscuration is total. Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) is active at all sites.

⚓ Tahoe Mariners Forecast

  • ⚠️ WINTER STORM WARNING: In effect until 4:00 PM PST.

  • Today: Heavy snow in the morning, chance of snow in the afternoon. Freezing Fog throughout the day.

  • Winds: Southwest 15-20 mph, gusts to 45 mph.

  • Tonight: Snow likely. Southwest gusts to 35 mph.

  • Wave Heights: 1 to 3 feet.

  • Coop’s Warning: Freezing fog + 45mph gusts = Stay off the lake. It’s not worth it.

Sierra Avalanche Centers

Central Sierra (Tahoe/Carson Pass):

  • Status: HIGH DANGER

  • Issued: Thursday, Dec 25 (Expires today @ 04:00 AM - Check link below for morning update).

  • The Bottom Line: “HIGH avalanche danger exists… rapid loading of feet of new snow.” Avalanches initiating higher up may travel into below-treeline areas.

  • Guidance: Travel in, near, or below backcountry avalanche terrain is NOT recommended.

  • Link: Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast

Eastside Region (Mammoth):

  • Status: AVALANCHE WARNING (Until 7:00 AM Friday).

  • The Bottom Line: “Very dangerous avalanche conditions… Natural avalanches large enough to bury you are likely.”

  • Guidance: Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

  • Link: Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast

The Bottom Line: The storm train keeps rolling. We have feet of new snow, hurricane-force winds up high, and messy roads down low. Let the Mtn Ops teams work their magic, give the CATS and plows space, and if you are heading into the backcountry, read the full avalanche report. Safety is key today.

Stay’nThirsty for POW,

Coop | RS#69

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