The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA | Time Stamp: 0447

Date: Monday, December 22, 2025

¡Buenos días my friends,

Cup'O'Joe in hand, #StokeLevelSteady, keeping my pow-dry, #NO-OverStokingAllowed. Rain here at the #HippieHaus, KBBX, and KDAX radars showing a large plume of precip has arrived at the crest, Chain Controls are up on SR88, with SNOW in the form of #GorillaSnot falling above 👆 8,000k regionally. A quick lap around the CAM's and we can see high elevation mixed, and are about to get a whole'lotta more...

What does that mean? Forecasters and prognosticators have the region looking at 12" to as much as 100" by the 26th, if you use the GFS. I am not in that camp, as we've seen so, so much rain, and #MotherNature is flexing, and shifting the firehose often, and quickly. So, that being said, I believe we are going to see high-elevation, Snain, Snow #G-Snot today, and above 8k - slowly lowering to around 7,500k by mid-day. Roads or passes will be a mess, as the surfaces will be slick and wet. #Slow'yrRoll and give our CalTrans, CHP/Sheriffs plenty of room to work, and keep our highways clear, and safe to travel.

RIVERS and Tahoe tributaries are maxed and flowing at NO LESS than 1,700cfs and are at Flood Stage, so stay clear! #MotherNature, Neptune, and Üllr have the CON, and are in full control of the next 5 days, or 120 hours. This is a beastie to forecast, and it will be a beastie to maneuver through.

For the Mountain: Mtn Teams are standing by at the ready. Give them the room they need to prep and prepare for the break and post-storm Resort openings. If, and when #MotherNature delivers, these crews have a lot of work to do, and they WILL open the mountains as SAFELY, and as quickly as they can. We are on a dirt surface right now, so there will be a lot of CAT ops, lift work, and, if snow levels drop, snow removal to perform. SO, Back-Country Billie, yep, you - the guy that wants to HIKE the resort - NO > STAYAway > #NoJerries!

BackCountry: Great question, and that is up to you. However, I will say this: as of 0445, 99% of the BC routes and zones were, or are still, wet DIRT. Snow loading and wind loading will be the first coats of snow, most likely falling at once, varying in temperature and elevation. Use the Sierra Avalanche Center as a reference, and be highly aware of the potential for a slide. #KnowBeforeYouGo

Town, Power: Be ready, have your genny topped off, and your Solar setups prepped and ready. IF we do and I do keep referring to “IF”, we may be in a loss of power and connectivity sit-rep. Best to be prepared, have a back-stock of Joe, a few bottles of Red, and at least a half-rack of frosty adults on hand, a few backstraps of venison and elk in the deep freeze, and maybe just maybe a few juicy Rib-eyes on tap for Monday Night football.

All the above is just for reference, for myself, I'm going to sit back, hit the Precor, and #HippieHaus gym, do a lil-work, sip on a cup'o'joe, watch a lil-football, and be ready, when the storm breaks, the Mtn teams are ready for our return, and the BackCountry has settled, and I am confident, I can make a plan, set my expectations, and enjoy the season ahead. Don't let your overconfidence $#&!-up your season...

“Remember that sometimes not getting what you want is a wonderful stroke of luck.”

― Dalai Lama XIV

Current Sector Data

Regional Temperatures:

• South Lake Tahoe (KTLV) at 6,308': 41ºF (Still warm in the basin)

• Truckee (KTRK) at 5,899': 39ºF

• Mammoth Mtn Race (MTH03) at 11,034': 27ºF

• Chair 6 Ridge (9,100'): 21ºF (Cold air is holding up high)

Regional Winds (The Engine Room):

• HippieHaus: 225º (SW) 16mph

• Truckee: 198º (SSW) 16mph

• Donner Pass: 209º (SSW) 17mph

• Carson Pass: 206º (WSW) 41/56mph (Ripping up top)

• Mammoth Race (MTH03): 189º (S) 28mph

Roads (CalTrans @ 0500):

• SR88: CHAINS REQUIRED (R2) from 2 mi east of Kirkwood to 5 mi west of Picketts Jct.

• HWY50: No traffic restrictions.

• I-80: Truck Screening (Eastbound at Applegate; Westbound at Mogul). Drivers must possess max chains.

• Coop's Note: Surfaces are wet, slick, and debris-filled. Drive with aloha.

⚠️ Active Weather Advisories

• FLOOD WATCH: In effect through this afternoon for the Tahoe Basin, Northeast CA, and Western NV.

• WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: In effect until 1 PM PST today (High elevations >8,000').

• WINTER STORM WATCH: In effect from Tuesday Evening through Friday Morning. This is the big show.

Forecast Update: The Rinse, The Lull, & The Pivot

We are tracking a complex, multi-stage event. Today is about water management; mid-week is about the transition to winter.

1. Today (The Wet Phase):

• Precipitation: Moderate to heavy rain continues through the morning. NWS Reno pinpoints the clearing time: Precip ends in North Mono ~11 AM–2 PM, and eventually tapers off in the Tahoe Basin by 4–7 PM.

• Snow Levels: Stubbornly high (8,000'). We might see them dip to 7,500' late, but this is a "Wet Sponge" event for the lower mountain.

• Wind: Ridge gusts 40-60 mph today. Breezy, but not the hurricane force of yesterday.

2. Tuesday (The Lull):

• The Break: Both NWS Reno and Sacramento agree on a brief lull Tuesday morning/afternoon. This is your window to reset, clear drainage, and prep for the next wave.

3. The Big Show (Tuesday Night - Friday):

• The Pivot: A Winter Storm Watch goes into effect Tuesday evening.

• The Cold: A series of colder short-waves will drop snow levels drastically.

• The Depth: Snow levels crash to 5,500-6,000 ft by Wednesday and potentially valley floors by Friday.

• The Volume: NWS Sacramento is forecasting 3-6 FEET of snow above 6,500' through the end of the week.

AFD Comparative Summary: Reno vs. Sacramento

• NWS Reno (REV): Focused heavily on the Timing of the Clearing today (late afternoon) and the Hydrology risks. They explicitly mention the Susan River exceeding action stage. They are cautious about the Tuesday/Wednesday transition, noting that models hint the low might break off to the north, which could extend the clearing—but they are still betting on the heavy snow arriving mid-week.

• NWS Sacramento (STO): Much more aggressive on the moisture totals. They note a chance for Thunderstorms this afternoon in the northern Sac Valley with rainfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. They are emphasizing the "Major Holiday Travel Impacts" starting Tuesday night, citing probabilities of >30 inches of snow above 5,500'.

• Key Difference: Sacramento is flagging the convection/thunderstorm potential today, while Reno is focused on the precise timing of the rain turning off this evening.

✈️ Aviation Section

Current Status: IFR / LIFR

• Hazards: Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) and Mountain Wave Turbulence area-wide.

• Conditions: KTRK (Truckee) and KTVL (Tahoe) are socked in. Moderate to heavy rain will keep conditions IFR/LIFR (Low Instrument Flight Rules) through at least 00z Tuesday (4 PM today).

• Turbulence: Ridgetop winds gusting 40-60 mph will create a bumpy ride for anything transitioning over the Sierra.

• Outlook: Conditions may briefly improve Tuesday morning before the next system slams the door Tuesday night.

⚓ Mariners Forecast:

• Conditions: Active but decreasing slightly from yesterday's fury.

• Winds: Southwest 10-15 mph, gusts to 35 mph today.

• Waves: 1 to 2 feet.

• Look Ahead: A Winter Storm Watch is in effect starting Tuesday Evening. If you have a boat on the water, today is likely your last safe window to check lines before the winds crank back up mid-week.

Sierra Avalanche Centers

Central Sierra (Tahoe/Carson Pass):

• Status: Complex / Early Season.

• The Bottom Line: Heavy rain on snow (ROS) creates wet snow avalanches at lower elevations. Above the rain line (>8,000'), wind slabs are forming in gullies and lee slopes.

• The Trap: Limited snow and terrain mean you are essentially skiing on a minefield of rocks, stumps, and wet debris.

Eastside Region (Mammoth):

• Status: Rising Hazard.

• Tactics: Avoid steep terrain. The combo of intense wind, rain, and heavy wet snow is stressing the snowpack.

The Bottom Line: We are managing the water today to enjoy the white room later. Respect the closures, give the Mtn Ops teams space, and use this rain day to get your mind right. The #WinterStormWatch is the beacon we've been waiting for.

Stay'nThirsty for POW,

Coop | RS#69