The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch
Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: February 2, 2026

¡Buenos días, my friends!

Cup'O'Joe in hand, #MindfulMonday with the #StokelevelzSolid. #NeverWasteADay. Today, get-up, grab a Cup’O’ and go get’cha some #FreshCord, then pull out the whip, go for a ride, or drop the kayak in at Camp Rich (WEAR a WETTY!). Life is a balance, and you’ve got the tools, use 'em. No weather other than #SevereClear, Temps - 50º, Winds - Calm. HP ridge builds and forecast guidance models hint at a change later in the month.

New weather page launches next week, more intel, less text. Tune in for my weekly Mornings on KTVU2 with Pam Cook. This week we’ll chat on options for your weekend, New Learn to Ride programs across the Sierra, and what’s possibly on-tap and in the pipe for the next round of #MaNatural…

“I will not propose to you that my way is best. The decision is up to you. If you find some point which may be suitable to you, then you can carry out experiments for yourself. If you find that it is of no use, then you can discard it.”

— The XIV Dalai Lama

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions as of 0516)

South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 23ºF

Truckee (KTRK): 21ºF

Palisades (Siberia 8,700’): 38ºF

Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 34ºF

KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6 9,100’): 37ºF

MammothMtn (Summit 11,034’): 32ºF

Regional Winds (as of 0516):

HippieHaus / Camp Rich: S 2-3mph

Mid-Lake Buoy: SSW 2mph

Donner Pass: NE 2mph

Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 2/6mph

Kirkwood (Chair 6): ENE 6/8mph

Mammoth (Summit): NE 7/9mph

📡 The Morning Intel: AFD Comparison & Summary
🔍 REV (Reno) vs. STO (Sacramento) Deep Dive
The Consensus: High Pressure is the undisputed heavyweight champion this week. Expect dry conditions, above-average afternoon highs, and valley inversions.

Changes & Updates:

The Weekend Break?: REV hints at a ridge breakdown by the weekend, while STO cites a “non-zero” chance for precipitation by Saturday night.

Nuance Check: STO is watching breezy N/E offshore winds in the Sac Valley (15-25 mph), which might actually keep the central valley clearer of fog than the Tahoe basins today.

⚠️ Weather Advisories
Tahoe/Sierra: None. #SevereClear.

Sacramento Valley/Delta: DENSE FOG ADVISORY in effect until noon PST today for the Northern San Joaquin and Southern Sacramento Valleys.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report
Status: Low Danger (#KnowBeforeYouGo)

Central Sierra (Brandon Schwartz): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Issued: Feb 1 | Expires: Feb 2, 4:00 AM.

Bottom Line: Avalanches unlikely. Soft snow is a “treasure hunt” in deep shade; expect spring-like surfaces on solar aspects.

Eastside Region (Greg Cunningham): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Issued: Jan 31 | Expires: Feb 1, 7:00 AM (Pending Update).

Bottom Line: Danger remains low. Warm temps may cause snow to become wet and sticky.

Note: BC enthusiasts are to go to the Sierra Avalanche Center’s website for the latest updates and reporting.

✈️ Aviation Sit-Rep
Status: VFR terminals through the week.

Specifics: Light winds for all Sierra terminals. The primary impact remains FZFG (Freezing Fog) at KTRK, likely producing IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibilities daily between 09Z and 16Z before dispersing.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report
Water Temp: 44.1ºF (Delta: +0.1ºF).

Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.53 feet (Delta: 0.00 ft—Holding steady).

Forecast: Sunny with light winds. Highs 49º-54ºF. Waves < 1 foot.

Safety Note: It’s #ColderThanAWellDiggersASS. Wetty (4/3 or 5/4) or Drysuit is “mandatory”. File your float plan.

🛣️ Road Status (as of 0516)
SR88, HWY50, I-80: No restrictions. Clear pavement.

Check quickmap.dot.ca.gov for real-time updates.

🔭 The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook
This Week: Maximum Ridge strength. We are looking at a “Spring in February” vibe with strong inversions. Warm in the foothills, chilly in the sinks.

The Shift: Models are finally showing some “spine” for a pattern breakdown starting Feb 8th-9th.

The Hope: Weeks two and three of February are the dark horses. While confidence is low, the disagreement between models is narrowing toward a cooler, more active window.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop