Camp Richardson | Lake Tahoe Forecast

Date: Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Buenos días, my friends,

Cup'O'Joe in hand, #StokeLevelSoild at 7.15, on this #WisdomWednesday. Sunrise temps: 39º at South Lake, 41º at TRK, with a 37º read here at the #HippieHaus. Winds early 173º (S) ~1 kt at CR, mid-lake buoy 194º (SSW) ~1–2 kts. Today: Sunny, high near 82ºF. Calm → light northerly winds this afternoon.

Looking forward to the next 3–7 days:

Temperatures:

• Trend: Cooling begins late week.

• Highs: Low 80ºs today and Thursday, dropping into the upper 60ºs by Friday, then rebounding into the 70ºs by the weekend.

• Overnight lows: mid-40ºs to near 50ºF, colder in sheltered valleys.

Wind Conditions:

• Today: Calm AM, north ~5 mph PM.

• Thursday: Calm → light east ~5 mph.

• Friday: Calm early; light variable with storm outflows possible.

• Sunday onward: W/SW breezes ~5–10 mph.

• Ridge gusts on Friday could hit 25–30 mph if convection builds. Mariners: secure gear before Thursday night.

Rain & Thunderstorm Outlook:

• Wed (today): Dry.

• Thu: Mostly cloudy; first showers arrive late evening (20–30%).

• Fri: Best chance for widespread showers/storms (~40–50%). Thunderstorms possible after 11 AM.

• Sat: 30% chance of lingering showers, mainly PM.

• Sun–Mon: Drying, highs in mid-70ºs.

• Tue: Slight chance (20%) of showers again.

• Totals: up to 0.25–0.40" possible south of US-50; lesser north.

Snow Levels:

• Well above passes (~11,000+ ft). No snow concerns.

Lake Wind & Weather Advisories:

• None currently in effect.

• Possible advisories late Thursday–Friday if convection/outflow winds verify.

Lake & Marine Data

• Forecasted Temps: High ~82ºF / Low ~48ºF tonight.

• Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.27 ft.

• Water Temperature (Mid-Lake Buoy): ~65.6ºF.

• Wave Heights: <1 ft through tonight.

Seven-Day Forecast (KTVL point)

• Wed: Sunny, high 82 / low 48.

• Thu: Mostly cloudy, high 80 / low 46. 30% showers late.

• Fri: 50% showers/t'storms, high 67 / low 45.

• Sat: 30% showers, high 75 / low 45.

• Sun: Sunny, high 77 / low 46.

• Mon: Mostly sunny, high 80 / low 48.

• Tue: 20% showers, high 74.

Changes from Yesterday

• Highs today remain warm (low 80s), but Friday's forecast cooled more sharply (high 67 vs low 70s prior).

• Rain chances Thursday night–Friday up from ~30% to ~50%.

• Lake metrics: Level down slightly (6,227.29 → 6,227.27 ft). Buoy temp steady (65.6ºF).

• Wind outlook: still light, but Friday convection could create localized gusty winds.

Summary: Another warm, calm day today—classic late-summer Tahoe. However, the pattern shift is inbound: clouds will build on Thursday, showers and storms are most likely on Friday, and then they are expected to taper off on Saturday. Mariners, the lake stays calm today and tomorrow, but keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday for sudden outflow gusts and lightning. Secure vessels, plan morning ops, and respect the Basin's quick pivots.

Coop (RS#69)

Chief of the Watch, Camp Richardson Marina

NAM 12km Models Valid - September 17, 2025