90-second overview of Lake Tahoe weather - Feb 4, 2026

The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: February 4, 2026

¡Buenos días, my friends!

Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokelevelzSolid #MammothChalkTown Wednesday. It’s confirmed, MammothMtn’s riding extremely well. On-piste is insanely well-manicured; off-piste is chalky with a lil-grit in sun-exposed zones. Current snowfall scale for the season: 4/5. Baller.

Day 28 of severe-clear is here, but there is a rift in the force coming Super Bowl Sunday. Long-range guidance (ECMWF Ens AIFS & GEFS AI - Below 👇) indicates an active week ahead with potential for multiple systems. The Sac-team notes probabilities for the first storm have jumped to an 80% chance of a quarter-inch or more in the mountains, with a 40-50% chance of 6"+ of snowfall. We’ll welcome any new precip for the water tables and the soul. Back on the mountain for day two of #ChalkTownUSA…

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions as of 0516)

  • South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 18ºF

  • Truckee (KTRK): 19ºF

  • Palisades (Siberia 8,700’): 41ºF

  • Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 41ºF

  • KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6 9,100’): 47ºF

  • MammothMtn (Summit 11,034’): 35ºF

Winds (as of 0516):

  • HippieHaus: S 3mph

  • Donner Pass: ENE 7mph

  • Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 18/20mph

  • Palisades (Siberia): E 17/24mph

  • Kirkwood (Chair 6): E 7/9mph

  • Mammoth (Summit): NNE 13/14mph

📡 The Morning Intel: AFD Comparison & Summary

🔍 REV (Reno) vs. STO (Sacramento) Deep Dive

  • The Consensus: Persistence of high pressure through Saturday, but the breakdown is no longer a “maybe” - confidence is increasing.

  • Key Changes & Updates:

  • The “Under-Cutter” Friday: REV identifies a weak upper low moving through SoCal Friday. It undercuts the ridge and introduces a 20% chance of light snow showers (>7,000 ft) for southern Alpine and Mono counties. Expect <1".

  • The Sunday Shift: Ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) are aligning on a moderately strong cold front arriving Sunday/Monday. Snow levels drop to 7,000 ft Sunday, and potentially below 6,000 ft by Monday.

  • Precip Probabilities: STO reports an 80% chance of significant mountain QPF (Precip) for the first system, while the Valley chances have dropped to 20%—this is a “Mountain Wave” setup.

  • Nuance Check: While REV focuses on the Friday “blip” for Mono County, STO is highlighting a secondary system already appearing on the radar for the following Valentine’s Day weekend.

⚠️ Weather Advisories

  • Tahoe/Sierra: None. Localized haze and slantwise visibility reductions in Reno/Carson.

  • Sacramento Valley: DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM today for the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report

Status: Low Danger (#KnowBeforeYouGo)

  • Central Sierra (Steve Reynaud): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

  • Issued: Feb 3, 6:46 AM | Expires: Feb 4, 4:00 AM.

  • Bottom Line: Avalanches remain unlikely throughout the forecast region. Variable snow conditions exist in the backcountry with a mix of snow surface types. Make a plan with options and change plans if you encounter unstable snow or unwanted conditions.

  • Eastside Region (Clancy Nelson): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

  • Issued: Feb 3, 7:00 AM | Expires: Feb 4, 7:00 AM.

  • Bottom Line: Avalanches remain unlikely. Watch for isolated instabilities, such as deep wet snow or cracking in old wind drifts. Give yourself options and be ready to adjust your plans if you find unexpected or unwanted conditions.

✈️ Tahoe Aviation Section

  • Status: VFR through the weekend.

  • Details: Light and variable winds for most terminals. At KTRK, expect very shallow, patchy FZFG (Freezing Fog) between 12-15Z. Valley inversions will continue to produce haze and slantwise visibility reductions for KRNO/KCXP.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report

  • Water Temp: 44.1ºF (Delta: 0.0ºF—Steady).

  • Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.53 feet (Delta: 0.00 ft—Holding).

  • Forecast: Sunny, light winds, waves <1 foot. Highs 50º–55ºF.

  • Safety Note: #ColderThanAWellDiggersASS. WEAR a WETTY (6/5/4, 5/4, or 4/3) or a Drysuit. File a float plan; glass water hides a deep chill.

🛣️ Road Status (as of 0516)

🔭 The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook

  • The Short Term (Fri–Sat): High pressure remains, but look for a stray flurry in Mono/Alpine on Friday as a weak low slides by.

  • The Pattern Break (Sunday–Monday): High pressure weakens and shifts east. A cold trough digs in. Highs drop into the 30s in the mountains. Expect snow showers to begin as early as Sunday afternoon (OpenSnow) or Monday morning (REV).

  • The Reload (Valentine’s Weekend): A broader trough with reinforcing cold air is forecast for the 14th-16th.

  • The “Way-Out” Maching: MJO Phase 3 convection stalling in mid-February signals a better shot at wetter, deeper storms by the 3rd week of Feb. We are moving from “Small Snows” to potential “Big Snows.”

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop

Weather map showing high and low pressure systems, precipitation, and temperature across the United States and surrounding regions, valid at 12z on February 4, 2026.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

Weather map showing 500mb height, anomalies, and cyclone patterns over North America on February 4, 2026. Highlights include a high-pressure system over the western US, a low-pressure system with cyclone activity over the north, and cold anomalies in the Arctic region.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Map showing 500mb height and anomaly forecast for California and surrounding states on February 4, 2026. The map indicates mostly high pressure and warm conditions, with deeper red and orange shades representing higher temps and heights. The coastline, state boundaries, and latitude/longitude lines are visible.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Weather forecast map showing precipitation, mean sea level pressure, and temperature over parts of the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States on February 9, 2026, at 6 UTC. Green indicates localized rain, and black and red lines depict isobars and temperature contours.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

Map showing 24-hour precipitation forecast in inches over the California coast and surrounding areas, with varying levels indicated by color from light gray to dark blue and green, representing precipitation amounts.

ECMWF AIFS AI Ens 0.25º - 24hr Precipitation (in)

Wind speed, direction, and gusts data chart with a table of weather measurements including temperature, humidity, and volts, over a 24-hour period on February 4, 2026.

Chair Six(6) Ridge 2.4.26 - KirkwoodMtn - 9,100’

Weather map showing 6-hour precipitation in inches, mean sea level pressure in hectopascals, and 850 millibar temperature in Celsius across parts of California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and surrounding states, valid at 12:00 UTC on February 6, 2026.

NAM 3Km 6hr Precip, MSLP, 850mb Temp (Cº)

A weather map of California showing composite reflectivity and precipitation types on February 6, 2026. The map includes a color scale at the bottom indicating varying levels of weather intensity, with green areas representing light precipitation, mainly in the southern part of the state.

NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type

Map showing NOAA weather forecast for snow accumulation across parts of California and Nevada, with no snow accumulation predicted.
Map showing snow accumulation in California, Nevada, Arizona, and surrounding states as of February 6, 2026, with snow levels in inches indicated by color scale, and lines marking state boundaries.

NBM Para v5 2.5km 24-hr Snow (Inches)

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)

Weather map showing 24-hour precipitation in inches across parts of California and nearby regions, with shades of gray indicating varying levels of rainfall.
Map showing California's temperature forecast at 24-minute intervals for February 6, 2026, with color-coded temperature gradients and specific temperature readings along the coastline and inland areas.

NAM 3km | 24hr Precipitation (in)

A weather map showing wind speed with streamlines and color coding, indicating strong winds from the Pacific Ocean approaching the California coast, with varying wind speeds across the region, valid for February 6, 2026.

NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MIN ºf)

NAM 3km | 80m Wind Speeds + Streamlines (kts)

Weather map showing wind shear forecast over California, Mexico, and surrounding areas on February 4, 2026, with color coding indicating wind shear in knots. Red and dark red areas represent high wind shear.

NAM 3km | 0-6km Wind Shear (kts) + Streamlines

Weather map of the western United States showing wind speeds, streamlines, and atmospheric pressure at 925mb, valid for February 6, 2026, at 00 UTC. The map indicates strong winds along the coast and variations in pressure across the region.

NAM 3km | 925mb Wind (kts) + Streamlines

This is a weather map showing 24-hour snowfall accumulation in inches across parts of the western United States, with the heaviest snowfall represented in purple.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Utah

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Colorado

Map of Montana showing 24-hour snowfall in inches as of February 6, 2026, with no measurable snow reported.
Map showing snowfall accumulation in centimeters over Alaska, with areas in the south and southeast having higher snow levels, reaching up to 184.2 centimeters, based on a 24-hour forecast valid on February 6, 2026.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) WA

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) British Columbia

Map showing snow accumulation in inches over a region of northern California and surrounding areas, with no significant snow reported.
Map showing snow accumulation in inches over a region near the Canada-U.S. border, with indications of geographic borders and a timeline from February 4, 2026, to February 6, 2026.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Idaho

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Montana

A weather map showing the 24-hour snow (Kuchera Ratio) in inches for a region in the northwestern United States on February 6, 2026, with no significant snow accumulation indicated.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Wyoming

Friends and Family