90-second overview of Lake Tahoe weather - Feb 2, 2026

The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch
Location: MammothMtn, CA

Date: February 3, 2026

¡Buenos días, my friends!

Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokelevelzAreSolid #Off-PisteTuesday, sunrise, MammothMtn. Way-z more snow down here on the Eastern Front, haven’t been on the Mtn yet, though local rumors of chalky goodness, and #CarvablyDelicious #Cord resonated loudly last night in a secret, well-known watering hole.

Big news on the weather front: after digesting the latest NWS feeds, B.A., and several other front-line weather geeks, guidance models are now pointing to a break in the force, notably weeks two and three. Still too far out to drop a line down at Caesars, but it does look as if we have a change afoot…

Today, it’s sunshine, Chair 23, and getting on-snow at MammothMtn at the WWSRA on-snow demo. Let’s look at the numbers and the light at the end of this 27-day dry tunnel.

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions as of 0516)
South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 21ºF

Truckee (KTRK): 21ºF

Palisades (Siberia 8,700’): 42ºF

Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 41ºF

KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6 9,100’): 41ºF

MammothMtn (Summit 11,034’): 37ºF

Regional Winds (as of 0516):

HippieHaus: S 5mph

Camp Rich / TRK: SW 2-3mph

Mid-Lake Buoy: NNW 1mph

Donner Pass: N 2mph

Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 11/15mph

Kirkwood (Chair 6): WNW 11/14mph

Mammoth (Summit): NW 5/7mph

📡 The Morning Intel: AFD Comparison & Summary


🔍 REV (Reno) vs. STO (Sacramento) Deep Dive
The Consensus: We are in the “3 C’s” phase: Cool, Calm, and Collected. High pressure is anchored, but the “Shadow” has been seen. Meteorologists at REV and STO are finally aligning on a definitive pattern break.

Changes & Updates:

The “Shadow” Signal: REV is officially leaning into long-range guidance. The dry spell (Day 27) has a projected end date.

Sunday Shortwave: A shortwave is propped to drop down the CA coast as early as Sunday/Monday. Snow levels are hinted at 5.5k–6.5k feet, which is prime for the basin.

Inversion Alert: REV warns of air quality reductions near prescribed burns due to strong inversions. STO has a Dense Fog Advisory active for the northern San Joaquin Valley.

Nuance Check: STO is seeing 70s in the northern Sac Valley - a massive temperature spread compared to our 40s/50s in the Sierra. They are also seeing a 60% probability for >0.25" of precip in the mountains by early next week.

⚠️ Weather Advisories
Tahoe/Sierra: None. Localized Freezing Fog (FZFG) in Martis Valley.

Sacramento Valley: DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM today for the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report
Status: Low Danger (#KnowBeforeYouGo)

Central Sierra (Brandon Schwartz): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Issued: Feb 2, 6:30 AM | Expires: Feb 3, 4:00 AM.

Bottom Line: Avalanches unlikely. Hunt for soft snow in the deep shade; expect spring-thaw conditions on sun-exposed aspects.

Eastside Region (Clancy Nelson): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Issued: Feb 2, 7:00 AM | Expires: Feb 3, 7:00 AM.

Bottom Line: Unlikely. Watch for isolated instabilities on sunny slopes as the surface thaws. Adjust plans if you find “sticky” snow.

✈️ Tahoe Sector Aviation:
Status: VFR through the week.

Details: Light winds and high pressure. FZFG (Freezing Fog) is the main player at KTRK between 09-16Z. Haze and slantwise visibility reductions are expected for KRNO/KCXP due to valley inversions and stagnant air.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report
Water Temp: 44.1ºF (Delta: 0.0ºF - Steady).

Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.52 feet (Delta: -0.01 ft).

Forecast: Sunny, light winds, waves < 1 foot. Highs near 54ºF.

Safety Note: #ColderThanAWellDiggersAss. Don’t be a hero; wear a wetty (6/5/4 or 5/4) or drysuit. Glassy water is deceptive; cold water shock is real.

🛣️ Road Status (as of 0516)
SR88, HWY50, I-80: All clear. No restrictions. Perfect for that mid-week desert-to-mountain transition.

Check quickmap.dot.ca.gov for live updates.

🔭 The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook
The Final Week of Dry: We expect the snow drought to hit roughly 4.5 weeks total before the dam breaks. Highs stay in the 40s/50s through Friday.

The Shift (Feb 9–16): The ridge slides east. A trough moves in on Valentine’s Day weekend. Expect temps to drop into the 30s and 20s at elevation.

The MJO “Phase 3” Factor: B.A. and the ensembles are eyeing Phase 3 of the MJO for the 3rd week of February. Historically, this is our “Atmospheric River” door-opener. Week 2 = Small storms; Week 3 = Potential for the Big Ones.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop

A weather map showing atmospheric pressure systems across North America and surrounding areas, with high and low-pressure centers, precipitation areas, and temperature contours.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

Weather map showing atmospheric pressure and temperature anomalies across North America. Warm colors indicate above-average pressure and temperature, especially over the central United States, while cooler colors indicate below-average conditions, visible over the northeastern U.S. and parts of Canada.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Weather forecast map of California showing 500mb height, anomalies, and geopotential heights for February 6-8, 2026, with higher temperature anomalies in the north and more moderate in the south.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Weather map showing precipitation and atmospheric pressure over the western United States, with areas of rain in the northwest, and calm weather in the southeastern US, with weather pattern lines and isobars.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

A weather map showing 24-hour precipitation forecast for parts of the Pacific Northwest and California, with the heaviest rainfall approaching from the northwest, represented in shades of green and gray.

ECMWF AIFS AI Ens 0.25º - 24hr Precipitation (in)

Weather data analysis with a line graph showing wind direction, wind speed, and gusts over time, and a table with timestamped measurements of air temperature, wet bulb, relative humidity, wind direction, speed, gust, volts, and maximum amperage.

Chair Six(6) Ridge 2.3.26 - KirkwoodMtn - 9,100’

Weather map showing 6-hour precipitation in inches, mean sea level pressure in hectopascals, and 850mb temperature in Celsius over the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Features include isobars, weather fronts, and a high-pressure system.

NAM 3Km 6hr Precip, MSLP, 850mb Temp (Cº)

Map showing weather data for California with color-coded reflectivity and precipitation types, no significant weather activity indicated.

NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type

Map of California and surrounding regions showing snow accumulation data, with no active snow in the area.
A weather map showing snow levels in California and surrounding states, with a 24-hour forecast valid at 12z on February 4, 2026. The map indicates snow accumulations in inches, with colors representing different levels of snowfall.

NBM Para v5 2.5km 24-hr Snow (Inches)

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)

Map of California and surrounding states showing 24-hour predicted rainfall in inches for February 4, 2026. Light gray areas indicate little to no expected precipitation, mostly in northern California and Nevada. Southern California shows small amounts, around 0.2 to 0.5 inches. The map includes state borders, latitude and longitude lines, and a color scale at the bottom for rainfall measurement.
A weather map showing temperatures in California, Nevada, and surrounding states on February 4, 2026. The map displays various temperature readings across the region with colors indicating temperature ranges from 16.2°F to 64.6°F. The coastal areas are colder, with temperatures in the 30s and 40s°F, while inland and southern areas show temperatures in the 50s and 60s°F.

NAM 3km | 24hr Precipitation (in)

Weather map showing wind streams and wind speeds in knots over California and surrounding areas on February 4, 2026. The map includes color-coded wind speeds, streamlines indicating wind direction, and contour lines.

NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MIN ºf)

NAM 3km | 80m Wind Speeds + Streamlines (kts)

A weather map showing wind shear in knots over the western United States including California, Nevada, and surrounding areas, with a hurricane or cyclone off the coast, indicating strong wind patterns and storm activity.

NAM 3km | 0-6km Wind Shear (kts) + Streamlines

Weather map showing wind speed in knots, streamlines, and mean sea level pressure in hPa. Color-coded pressure gradient and wind patterns over the Gulf of Mexico, southeastern US, and parts of Central America. The map indicates areas of storm activity with different wind intensities and pressure systems.

NAM 3km | 925mb Wind (kts) + Streamlines

A weather map showing snow accumulation in inches over the southwestern United States and parts of the northern plains, with the highest snowfall in the eastern regions near North Dakota and Minnesota.
Weather radar map showing snow intensity over parts of the northern United States, with a focus on Minnesota. The map indicates areas of snowfall in shades of blue and pink, with values measured in inches. The snow is most concentrated in central Minnesota.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Utah

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Colorado

Map of the Northwestern United States with outlines of states, showing no significant precipitation or snowfall in the region as of February 4, 2026, at 12:00 UTC.
Map showing snowfall accumulation over Alaska and parts of Canada, with color coding indicating snow depth in centimeters. Blue shades represent lower snow depths, while pink and purple shades indicate higher levels, reaching up to 245.1 cm.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) WA

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) British Columbia

Map showing snow accumulation in inches across parts of the western United States as of February 4, 2026, with areas of higher snow depth in blue and scattered locations of snow in gray.
A weather map showing 24-hour snow accumulation in inches across parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and surrounding states, with snow concentrations indicated by gray, blue, and purple shades, based on data from February 4, 2026.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Idaho

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Montana

Map showing snow accumulation in inches across parts of Wyoming and nearby states, with areas of higher snowfall in purple and blue, and lighter snow in gray.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Wyoming

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