The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025

¡Buenos días my friends

Cup'O'Joe in hand, and the #StokeLevelRising up to 12.9 on this #TheologianThursday.

Reading the NWS Forecast Discussions, texts, and calls to the Meteorological Gods—Ullr, Neptune, Calipso, and Ole Mother Nature—I can now see a glimpse, a ray of hope, a blip on the radar. There is a ‘possible' CHANGE in the form of an ATMOSPHERIC RIVER and one of a series (two) atmospheric rivers possibilities that could, might, maybe change the trajectory of December's zero-sum run… December - #InLikeALamb~#OutLikeALion 

It's a bit far out, however, and with a fatty caveat insert, this could really be the needed break in the HP ridging off the coast, allowing a change to a more active weather pattern with periods of increased winds and precipitation regionally. Let's not #OverStoke this, considering the consistency issues affecting the longer-range guidance so far this month. It's a little early to dream of a white Christmas, especially in lower elevations. However, if this scenario holds, it would help raise Sierra snowpack levels closer to average for this point in the water year, but also lead to difficult winter driving conditions as we enter the busy holiday travel period.

So, my friends, tonight, tomorrow, and through the weekend, toss a few "Pray for's," throw-down a tune on the ole blower, tune up those POWHunt'n sticks and sleds, and let's F'n GO!

Today's Intel

• 🚠 Bullwheels Turning: KirkwoodMtn, Heavenly, Mt Rose, MammothMtn, Palisades (Limited), Boreal, Northstar, Revelstoke.

• 🌡️ Temps: Unseasonably Warm. Highs 15-20º degrees above average (mid-50s to mid-60s). South Lake Tahoe and Reno are challenging records again today.

• 🚗 Roads: ALL CLEAR in the Sierra. Dense Fog Advisory in the Sacramento/Solano Valleys (Hwy 50 / I-80).

The RS Mindset: While we wait for the pattern flip, we embrace the dual-sport life. Ski in the AM, bike or paddle in the PM. The storm door is locked here for now, but she's open for business elsewhere. If you stay, enjoy the "Tahoe Zonker Tan-Athon." #JustDoIt

Looking forward to the next 3–7 days:

• Potential Rain and Snow Outlook: Dry Pattern Continues through the Weekend. High pressure remains anchored.

• Forecast Update / Changes:

• The Shift: Confidence is INCREASING for a pattern change next week.

• First Wave (Mon/Tue): A shortwave dents the ridge, bringing increased winds and a low-end (15-25%) chance of light showers north of I-80.

• Second Wave (Tue/Wed): A second wave follows quickly, bringing gusty winds to lower elevations and increasing moisture. 30-50% chance of at least 0.25" liquid north of Tahoe.

• The Catch: Snow levels remain HIGH (8,000-9,000 ft), so this is likely a rain event for lake level and lower resorts.

• Snow Levels: N/A (Clear/Dry) -> High (8-9k ft next week).

• Temperatures: Near Record Warmth. Highs will be 10-15º degrees above average through the weekend.

• Winds / Wind Conditions: Light. Winds remain light and terrain-driven through the weekend.

• Road Conditions: ALL CLEAR. Watch for brake checks on I-80 West.

The Weather Ahead | Temperatures | Winds | Winter

Forecasted Temperatures (Today's High / Tonight's Low):

• #HippieHaus (SLT / 6,380'): 61° / 41°

• Kirkwood (Base / 7,800'): 56° / 33°

• Truckee (North Shore / 5,800'): 61° / 25°

• Mammoth Mtn (Base / 8,900'): 42° / 39°

Timing of wind direction/wind speeds: Light/Variable winds today. No significant wind events expected.

Seven(7) Day forecast (Lake Level Highs/Lows):

• Today (Thu): 61° / 41° (Sunny, Near Record Warmth)

• Friday: 57° / 35° (Sunny, Warm)

• Saturday: 56° / 32° (Sunny)

• Sunday: 54° / 30° (Sunny)

• Monday: 52° / 28° (Partly Cloudy, Breezy Late)

• Tuesday: 50° / 32° (Chance of Rain/Snow High Elevation)

• Wednesday: 48° / 28° (Chance of Rain/Snow High Elevation)

Sierra Avalanche Center (Tahoe / Carson Pass):

• Status: #LowTide.

• Hazard: Shallow Obstacles.

• Discussion: Shallow snowpack. Avalanche concerns exist in isolated areas where hard, supportable slabs of wind-drifted snow exist on top of weak sugary snow.

• Link: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center (Mammoth Zone):

• Status: #LowTide.

• Hazard: Shallow Obstacles.

• Discussion: Thin coverage. Northeast winds may have created isolated slabs.

• Link: https://bit.ly/EasternSierraAvalancheForecast

⚓ Marine Forecast for Lake Tahoe:

• Status: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

• TODAY: Sunny. Light winds. Highs 56-61. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

• TONIGHT: Clear. Light winds. Lows 33-41. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

• FRIDAY: Sunny. Light winds. Highs around 57.

• Water Temp: 49.1°F.

• Mariner Note: Glassy conditions. Highly recommend a 4/3 or 5/4 wetty if you are paddling/foiling due to cold water shock risk.

✈️ Aviation Forecast (Detailed for Pilots):

• Conditions: VFR prevails across all terminals through the weekend.

• Hazards:

• Haze: Valley inversions could produce minor reductions in slantwise visibility each morning.

• FZFG (Freezing Fog): 20-40% chance for patchy Freezing Fog at KTRK (Truckee) between 10Z-16Z.

• Winds: Light winds. No significant turbulence or LLWS expected.

Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) Summaries

For #HippieHaus & Mammoth (NWS Reno):

• Records: "Today will bring one more chance to come near record highs (64º for Reno and 59º for South Lake Tahoe)."

• Long Range Update: "The most recent data brings increasing confidence for a more active weather pattern returning by next week... Longer range guidance is projecting continued chances for gusty winds and precip, with atmospheric river-type Pacific moisture pushing farther south."

• Wind: Light winds continue this week.

For Carson Pass / KirkwoodMtn Zone (NWS Sacramento):

• Valley Focus: Dense Fog Advisory (Solano/Yolo/Sacramento).

• Mountain Focus: "Increasingly mild temperatures with sunny skies and dry weather are expected over higher terrain."

On this #TheologianThursday, we embrace the warm, dry pattern while keeping a hopeful eye on the horizon. The skiing is firm but fun, the weather is warm, and the travel is easy. Enjoy the dual-sport days, keep your edges sharp, and stay tuned for the potential mid-month pattern shift. Patience is the practice.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop | RS#69