The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: #FreakFlagFriday, January 30, 2026

¡Buenas tardes, my friends!

#StokeLevelzSolid, it's a #FreakFlagFriday with a new-format for the daily Tahoe Sector report. Weather, well, that's a great question, and to be transparent, we are in a high-and-dry pattern. Hints, maybes, and way-out chances are what I am seeing in the forecast guidance models.

“The way we see the world is the way we experience the world.”

— Dalai Lama XIV

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions)

  • South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 48ºF

  • Truckee (KTRK): 54ºF

  • Palisades (Siberia 8,700'): 45ºF

  • Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643'): 48ºF

  • Kirkwood (Chair 6 9,100'): 41ºF

  • Mammoth Mtn (Summit 11,034'): 38ºF

Winds:

  • HippieHaus / Camp Rich: SE 1 mph (Dead calm)

  • Mid-Lake Buoy: SE 2 mph

  • Donner Pass: SW 5 mph

  • Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 12-16 mph

  • Kirkwood (Chair 6): W 6-9 mph

  • Mammoth Mtn (Summit): S 3-12 mph

📡 The Morning Intel: AFD Deep Dive & Data Verification

⚠️ Weather Advisories

  • Sacramento Valley/Delta: DENSE FOG ADVISORY in effect until 12:00 PM Saturday.

  • Tahoe/Sierra Sectors: No active advisories. VFR conditions prevail.

🔍 AFD Comparison & Summary (REV vs. STO)

  • The Consensus: High pressure dominates through Saturday. Expect a "dirty ridge"—plenty of mid-to-high level clouds, but zero moisture reaching the dirt.

  • Changes & Updates:

    • REV (Reno): Highlights a weak shortwave approaching the Pacific NW, keeping our skies cloudy but inhibiting deep valley fog. Highs are trending 10+ degrees above average, reaching low 60s in lower valleys and mid-50s in the Sierra.

    • STO (Sacramento): Notes precipitation chances for Sunday are trending downward as the ridge holds strong. Patchy fog remains a major player for the Valley floor commute.

  • The Nuance: Models have backed off on Sunday’s "potential" system. REV cites a <10% chance of light showers north of Tahoe, effectively a downgrade from yesterday’s optimism.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report

Status: Generally Stable

  • Central Sierra: bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

    • Issued: Jan 30, 2026 - 6:52 AM | Expires: Jan 31, 2026 - 4:00 AM

    • Author: Andy Anderson

    • The Bottom Line: Avalanches remain unlikely. Practice safe habits and regroup out of avalanche paths.

  • Eastside Region: bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

    • Issued: Jan 30, 2026 - 7:05 AM | Expires: Jan 31, 2026 - 7:00 AM

    • Author: Steve Mace

    • The Bottom Line: Generally stable. Monitor surface warming on solar aspects.

  • #KnowBeforeYouGo: Visit the Sierra Avalanche Center for full details.

✈️ Aviation Section

  • Status: VFR through Saturday.

  • Details: Light winds and high clouds. Haze (HZ) is the primary concern for KRNO and KTRK due to regional prescribed burns and valley inversions. Pilots should expect IFR/LIFR conditions if venturing into the Sacramento Valley due to dense fog.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report

Lake Tahoe Marine Forecast:

  • Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.51 ft (Delta: +0.02 ft day-over-day).

  • Water Temp (Mid-Lake): 44.3ºF.

  • Outlook: Light winds, waves <1 ft. Mostly cloudy through Sunday.

🛣️ Road Status (as of 1600)

  • SR88, HWY50, I-80: No traffic restrictions reported. Dry pavement across the passes.

  • Check quickmap.dot.ca.gov before you roll.

🔭 The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook

"Bridge Day" has become "Bridge Week." We are looking at a sharp cooldown and increasing breezes on Sunday as a trough clips us to the north, but it’s likely a dry front. High pressure builds back on Monday.

  • The Hope: Mid-February ensemble models hint at a pattern shift, but for now, keep the wax on the boards for high-speed groomers and spring-like conditions.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop

A weather map of North America showing isobars, high and low-pressure areas, and precipitation patterns for January 28, 2026, at 12:00 PM.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

A weather map of North America showing atmospheric pressure, 500mb height, and anomalies with color coding: red indicates higher than normal heights, blue indicates lower than normal heights, with isobars and contours overlaid.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Map showing forecasted precipitation water in inches across California, Nevada, and surrounding states, with varying shades of brown and gray indicating different levels, and numerical values indicating specific measurements. The map is for February 2, 2026.

ECMWF AIFS AI - 0.25º Precipitable Water (Inches)

Weather map showing 24-hour precipitation forecast in inches across coastal California and parts of the Pacific Ocean, with green indicating light rain and gray indicating dry areas, valid for 6 a.m. on February 2, 2026.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 24hr Precipitation (Inches)

A weather map of California, displaying the 24-hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast in inches, with the western part of the state showing minimal precipitation, mainly in light gray, indicating very little to no rainfall.

ECMWF AIFS AI Ens 0.25º - 24hr QPF 25 Percentile (in)

Graph showing wind data, including wind direction, wind speed, and gusts over time, with a table of weather parameters such as temperature, humidity, and voltage.

Chair Six(6) Ridge 1.28.26 - KirkwoodMtn - 9,100’

Weather map showing 6-hour precipitation, mean sea level pressure, and temperature forecast in California and surrounding areas at 12Z on January 28, 2026. Green indicates rain in central California, with red contours showing pressure lines, and blue H indicating high pressure over the Pacific Ocean.

NAM 3Km 6hr Precip, MSLP, 850mb Temp (Cº)

Weather map of California showing precipitation levels with areas of rain in green and blue, indicating moderate to heavy rainfall, valid for 06Z on January 28, 2026.

NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type

Map showing 24-hour snowfall in inches across parts of the western United States on January 29, 2026, with areas of light snow in northern Minnesota and the Dakotas.
Map showing snowfall forecast over parts of the western United States, with areas of snow indicated in various shades of blue, purple, and pink, reflecting different levels of snow accumulation in inches, valid for January 29, 2026.

NBM Para v5 2.5km 24-hr Snow (Inches)

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)

Map showing 24-hour precipitation forecast for California, Nevada, and surrounding states, with areas of moderate to heavy rainfall, especially in northern California and parts of Nevada, indicated in green and blue.
Map showing temperatures across California and surrounding states, with color gradients indicating temperature levels in degrees Fahrenheit. The map includes temperature readings at various locations, ranging from 6.5°F to 63.1°F, and highlights a cold temperature trend in northern California and nearby areas, with warmer temperatures toward the south and coast.

NAM 3km | 24hr Precipitation (in)

A weather map showing wind speeds and streamlines in knots along the western coast of the United States, with color coding indicating wind intensity—blue and gray shades suggest areas of stronger wind, especially offshore and over the ocean.

NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MIN ºf)

NAM 3km | 80m Wind Speeds + Streamlines (kts)

Weather map showing wind shear in knots across parts of Mexico and the southwestern United States on January 28, 2026, with strong wind shear indicated by red and orange colors.

NAM 3km | 0-6km Wind Shear (kts) + Streamlines

A weather map showing wind speeds and streamlines over parts of California, Nevada, and surrounding areas at 925mb pressure level, valid for 12z on January 28, 2026. Areas of precipitation indicated in blue and green, with contour lines representing mean sea level pressure.

NAM 3km | 925mb Wind (kts) + Streamlines

Weather radar map showing snow in parts of southern California, Nevada, and Arizona, with areas of precipitation in the northeastern US, including New York and Massachusetts, on January 29, 2026.
Map showing snow accumulation in inches over parts of the western United States on January 29, 2026, with areas of heavier snowfall indicated in purple and pink.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Utah

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Colorado

Weather map showing 24-hour snowfall in inches across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, and Montana, with heavier snowfall indicated in pink and purple colors.
Map showing 24-hour snowfall amounts in centimeters across parts of western Canada, with higher concentrations in the south and western areas, with snow amounts marked in pink and purple.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) WA

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) British Columbia

Map showing forecasted 24-hour snowfall in inches across parts of the western United States, including areas of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and surrounding states, with varying levels of snow depicted in shades of gray, blue, and magenta.
Map showing 24-hour snowfall in inches across northern California, Nevada, and parts of Oregon and Idaho on January 29, 2026, with snow accumulation levels represented by varying shades of gray and blue.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Idaho

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Montana

Weather map showing the 24-hour snow accumulation in inches over the northwestern United States, including parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and western Canada, with varying snowfall amounts indicated by different shades of gray, blue, and purple.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Wyoming

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