#HippieHaus | Lake Tahoe Forecast

Lon: 38.880336 Lat: -120.022771 Elev: 6,380'

Date: November 20, 2025

¡Buenos días, my friends, 0445 PST, Cup'O'Joe in hand, #StokeLevelSteady. It's a #TheologianThursday. As the Dalai Lama teaches us, "Patience is the guard against losing our presence of mind. It enables us to remain undisturbed, even when the situation is really difficult."

#MotherNature is asking for that patience today. We have a "slow-creep" system lining up, not a door-busting moisture-monster, but a slow light exhale moving into the Basin. While the #DirtySouth is waking up to calm gray skies, the energy is already tangling with the crest up on Donner Pass. At the #HippeHaus, we are in the transition zone, waiting for the switch to flip from "wait & watch" to "precip." MammothMtn will fire up the Bull Wheels for their opener today, while our Basin resorts are still in need of additional #Base, and machine-made. Mtn Teams will utilize this window to continue making snow and prepping the base, as the Wet Bulb temps are dropping into the "Zone" for snowmaking. To be candid, get’yr chores done early; the roads will get slick tonight. #Slow’yrRoll

Looking forward to the next 3–7 days:

Potential Rain and Snow Outlook: The tap is opening, but slowly. Expect spotty virga and sprinkles through the mid-day. The main pulse of widespread rain and snow arrives this evening (approx. 1700–2000 hours). This is a colder system than yesterday's teaser. Expect a mix of Snain at lake level transitioning to all snow by late tonight.

Rain/Snain totals at the lake: 0.10" – 0.25".

Snow totals up high: 3–6" (favoring the West Slope/Crest).

Snow Levels: Currently hovering around 7,000 feet. As the cold front drags across the Sierra this evening, snow levels will drop down to Lake Level (6,200 feet) by 2200 hours, turning wet roads to slush/ice overnight.

Temperatures: We are entering a cooling trend. Daytime highs will struggle to hit the mid-40s (44°) at the lake. Overnight lows will drop significantly into the mid-20s, freezing any moisture left on the decks.

Winds / Wind Conditions: Winds are already waking up. Currently SW (211º) at 22 mph, gusting to 26 mph over the ridges. Expect ridge gusts to hit 60+ mph this afternoon ahead of the front. Lake level winds will be breezy, 15–20 mph out of the Southwest.

Road Conditions and Weather Advisories: Conditions are deteriorating over the passes.

I-80 (Donner Pass): R2 Chain Controls are in effect from Kingvale to Donner Lake Interchange.

SR-88 (Carson Pass): Watch for 1-way traffic control (construction) near Ione until 0600. No chains yet, but expect slick spots by sunset.

US-50: Currently clear, but carry the iron; you will likely need it tonight.

The Weather Ahead | Temperatures | Winds | Winter

Weather Advisories | Winter Storm Watches | Wind Advisories

Lake Tahoe Basin (CAZ072): Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 4:00 PM Today to 10:00 AM Friday.

West Slope Sierra / Kirkwood (Alpine Co.): Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 4:00 PM Today to 10:00 AM Friday.

Eastern Sierra / Mono County (CAZ073): No active watches, but expect wind impacts.

Forecasted Temperatures (Today's High / Tonight's Low):

#HippieHaus (SLT / 6,380'): 44° / 25°

Kirkwood (Base / 7,800'): 36° / 18°

Truckee (North Shore / 5,800'): 41° / 22°

Mammoth Mtn (Base / 8,900'): 32° / 15°

Timing of wind direction/wind speeds: Southwest winds are sustained at 20+ mph over the ridges now. They will peak this afternoon (1400–1600 hours) before shifting West/Northwest and calming slightly after the frontal passage Friday morning.

Seven (7) Day Forecast (Lake Level Highs/Lows):

Today (Thu): 44° / 25° (Cloudy, PM Snain/Snow)

Friday: 38° / 18° (AM Snow Showers, Clearing & Cold)

Saturday: 42° / 20° (Sunny, Cold start)

Sunday: 45° / 24° (Mostly Sunny)

Monday: 48° / 26° (Sunny)

Tuesday: 50° / 28° (Sunny, Slow warming)

Wednesday: 51° / 30° (Sunny)

Weather / Advisories

Type(s): Winter Weather Advisory.

In Effect: 1600 PST Today. | Expiring: 1000 PST Friday.

Changes from Yesterday:

Snow Potentials | Probabilities: Probabilities have increased to 80% for precip tonight. The timing has slipped slightly later (evening arrival).

Snow/Rain Levels | Elevation Changes: Snow levels are forecasted to drop faster and lower than yesterday's models suggested, reaching lake level tonight.

Temperatures: A distinct drop. We are trading the "Bridge Day" warmth for a "Cold Flush."

Wind Speeds/Direction: Ridge winds have increased significantly compared to yesterday's calm.

Sierra Avalanche Centers: Hazard remains LOW, but new snow on a thin base = fresh hazards (rocks/stumps).

Sierra Avalanche Centers: The pack is thin and early-season. #SnowSharks are the primary concern.

Sierra Avalanche Center (Tahoe / Carson Pass):

Note: (Issued Nov 19, 2025 - 07:00 AM) LOW (Level 1) hazard. New snow amounts tonight may be enough to create small, isolated wind slabs near ridgelines. The primary risk remains striking obstacles just below the surface.

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center (Mammoth Zone):

Note: (Issued Nov 19, 2025 - 07:15 AM) LOW (Level 1) hazard. With the resort opening, stick to the groomed runs. Off-piste coverage is extremely variable. Watch for wind-scoured ice on exposed ridges.

Marina/Lake Guidance Forecast for Lake Tahoe Today

TODAY... Cloudy. South winds 15 to 20 mph, gusts to 30 mph. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

TONIGHT... Rain and snow likely. Lows around 25. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Small craft should exercise caution.

FRIDAY... Snow showers likely in the morning. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Water Temperature at the mid-lake buoys: 51.8 degrees.

Lake Level for Lake Tahoe at Tahoe City: 6,226.88 feet.

Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) Summaries

For #HippieHaus (NWS Reno): The "Bridge Day" is over. The discussion focuses on the upstream trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Forecasters are confident in the "Cold Flush" scenario. The main precip band moves through this evening. While QPF (precip totals) isn't huge, the Liquid-to-Snow ratios (LSR) will improve overnight as cold air arrives, allowing for a fluffy couple of inches at lake level by morning.

For Carson Pass / KirkwoodMtn Zone (NWS Sacramento): Winter Weather Advisory is the headline. The NWS emphasizes travel difficulties over the passes tonight. The Mtn Teams at Kirkwood will see good snowmaking temperatures (Wet Bulb < 22º) following the storm, which is the real win here. Gusty winds over the crest will create blowing snow/reduced visibility tonight.

For Mammoth Mountain Zone (NWS Reno): Opening Day excitement meets a cold front. The system clips the Eastern Sierra later than Tahoe. Expect snow showers to develop this evening. The primary impact here is the wind (Ridge gusts 60+ mph) and the sharp drop in temperatures, which will support aggressive snowmaking efforts over the weekend.

Summary: On this #TheologianThursday, we practice patience. The #StokeLevelSteady as we watch the radar fill in. The #DirtySouth is cooling down, and the next pulse of #MotherNaturesFlex is on the doorstep. Today is about transition, from the calm of yesterday to the Snain and snow of tonight.

If you are traveling, get over the Mtn before 1600. If you are local, get the wood stacked and the gear prepped. While the totals won't bury the house, the #FreshCoat combined with the incoming cold temps is exactly what the Mtn Teams need to lock in the base for the season. Let the fire in your bellies burn hot, because the #FlakeStartFly’n tonight.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop | RS#69