The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: Monday, December 8, 2025

¡Buenos días, my friends! Cup'O'Joe in hand, #StokeLevelSolid at 12 after a weekend on the mountain with the KSEF team, friends, and family.

It was only Race Course, but it was carvalicious, firm, and gloriously fun. Hot laps, pre-season lift convos, post-summer catch-ups... the chairlift is basically Lucy's psych stand (without the nickel cost). Oh, the weather? Almost forgot, as the stars are out above. It's 23º with not even a hint of wind here at the #HippieHaus.

The Reality Check: Wet-bulb temps are playing favorites this morning. I can see Palisades, KirkwoodMtn, and Heavenly Mtn Teams making snow at lower elevations, but inversions are making it hard-to-impossible to get the guns blazing up top.

Today, expect a sunny day with a high near 57º and calm winds. If you want POW, you gotta travel: Whistler has 10cm in 48hrs, and Revelstoke is OPEN with 68cm in the last week. If you're chill and can wait out the next 10-14 days here, good on ya. But as PowHunt'n season progresses, you've got options. #JustGoDoIt!

Today's Intel

  • 🚠 Lifts Spinning: KirkwoodMtn, Heavenly, Mt. Rose, MammothMtn, Palisades (Limited), Boreal, Northstar.

  • 🌡️ Temps: Warming trend. Near record warmth possible mid-week (Reno could break records Tue-Thu).

  • ❄️ Snowmaking: Marginal windows due to inversions. Teams are maximizing low-elevation opportunities.

  • 🚗 Roads: ALL CLEAR in the Sierra. Dense Fog Advisories in the Valley.

The RS Mindset: The storm door is locked, but the playground is open. We celebrate the work of the ops teams and enjoy the clear skies. Every day on the Mtn, each turn is way better than NO turns at all.

Looking forward to the next 3–7 days:

  • Potential Rain and Snow Outlook: Dry Pattern Dominates. High pressure remains anchored through the week.

  • Long Range Intel:

  • Mid-Month Hope: The blocking pattern looks to finally dislodge towards the middle of the month (Dec 15th+).

  • Model Wars: The European Model is aggressive, showing storms reaching the northern Sierra around Dec 15-17. The GFS and AI Models, however, keep the ridge amplified, pushing storms north into B.C.

  • Verdict: We'll hang our hats on a lower chance that the Euro/Canadian models are right. Confidence is low, but the signal is there.

  • Snow Levels: 🤣 🤣🤣🤣

  • Temperatures: Near Record Warmth. Highs could reach the 60s in valleys this week (15-20 degrees above normal!).

  • Winds / Wind Conditions: Light. Light and variable winds expected through the week.

  • Road Conditions: ALL CLEAR in the Sierra. Watch for Dense Fog on I-80/Hwy 50 in the valley/foothills.

The Weather Ahead | Temperatures | Winds | Winter

Forecasted Temperatures (Today's High / Tonight's Low):

  • #HippieHaus (SLT / 6,380'): 56° / 35°

  • Kirkwood (Base / 7,800'): 50° / 29°

  • Truckee (North Shore / 5,800'): 57° / 23°

  • Mammoth Mtn (Base / 8,900'): 45° / 28°

Timing of wind direction/wind speeds: Generally, light surface winds. Ridge winds calm.

Seven(7) Day forecast (Lake Level Highs/Lows):

  • Today (Mon): 56° / 35° (Sunny, Mild)

  • Tuesday: 60° / 38° (Sunny, Warm)

  • Wednesday: 62° / 40° (Sunny, Near Record Heat)

  • Thursday: 60° / 38° (Sunny)

  • Friday: 58° / 35° (Sunny)

  • Saturday: 55° / 32° (Sunny)

  • Sunday: 52° / 30° (Cooling Trend?)

Sierra Avalanche Centers:

Sierra Avalanche Center (Tahoe / Carson Pass):

  • Status: #LowTide.

  • Hazard: Shallow obstacles.

  • Discussion: Shallow snowpack with exposed obstacles. Avalanche concerns limited to isolated wind-drifts.

  • Link: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center (Mammoth Zone):

⚓ Marine Forecast for Lake Tahoe:

  • Status: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

  • TODAY: Sunny. Light winds. Highs around 56. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

  • TONIGHT: Clear. Light winds. Lows 35-43. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

  • TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Light winds. Highs 56-61.

  • Water Temp: 49.2°F.

  • Paddler Note: Cold Water Safety: 4/3 or 5/4 wetsuit highly recommended.

✈️ Aviation Forecast (Detailed for Pilots):

  • KTRK (Truckee): VFR prevailing. Watch for morning freezing fog (FZFG).

  • KTVL (South Lake Tahoe): VFR. Mostly clear skies.

  • Hazards: Haze and degraded air quality possible in lower urban valleys due to inversions.

Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) Summaries

For #HippieHaus & Mammoth (NWS Reno):

  • Discussion: "Broad western ridging will result in an unusually warm week... near record warmth expected."

  • Records: Reno-Tahoe Int'l has an 85% chance of breaking the daily record high on Tuesday.

  • Long Range: "The blocking pattern... looks to finally dislodge towards the middle of the month... an encouraging trend."

For Carson Pass / KirkwoodMtn Zone (NWS Sacramento):

  • Valley Focus: Dense fog/low clouds in the Central Valley; highs trending cooler than forecast due to persistence of fog.

  • Mountain Focus: Dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On this #MindfulMonday, we embrace the warm, dry pattern. It's not what we want for December, but it's what we have. The roads are clear, the sun is out, and the lifts are spinning. If you're staying local, enjoy the cord and the multi-sport ops today. If you're chasing POW, look north to Revelstoke. We are closely watching the mid-month signals. Stay tuned, and yes, stay thirsty.

Always'Thirst'n for POW

Coop | RS#69

ECMWF AIFS ENS [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

Weather map showing high and low pressure systems, cold fronts, warm fronts, and areas of precipitation across the United States and surrounding regions.

ECMWF AIFS ENS [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Weather map showing the 500mb height and anomaly across North America with color-coded temperature deviations; red and orange indicate higher than normal heights, blue and purple indicate lower than normal heights. The map includes contour lines denoting the height in decameters and labels for temperature anomalies for December 8, 2025.

ECMWF AIFS ENS [M] 0.25º QPF 5-day Anomaly (Inches)

A weather map showing 5-day rainfall anomalies across North America, with areas of above-average rainfall in green and blue, below-average in brown and tan, and some areas with significant rainfall in blue patches. The map includes the North Atlantic, Pacific coasts, and parts of Canada, with surrounding oceans and the Arctic region visible.

ECMWF AIFS ENS [M] 0.25º 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) (Inches)

Map showing weather forecast with 24-hour snowfall in inches across North America for December 9, 2025, highlighting areas of heavy snow in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, parts of the Northeast, and Southeast.

ECMWF AIFS ENS [M] 0.25º 500mb Geopotential Height (dam)

Map of North America showing 500mb geopotential height forecast for December 8, 2025. Color-coded contours indicate heights with higher values in red and lower in blue. A low-pressure system is over the central U.S., with higher heights around the edges.

ECMWF AIFS ENS [M] 0.25º Ensemble Member-Wise Minimun MSLP (hPa)

A weather map of North America showing ensemble forecasts of minimum sea level pressure in hectopascals (hPa) for December 8, 2025, at 6 UTC. It features high and low-pressure systems marked with blue and red symbols, respectively, with color shading indicating various pressure levels from low (blue) to high (red).

Chair Six(6) Ridge Actual - KirkwoodMtn - 9,100’

Graph showing wind direction, wind speed, and gusts over a 24-hour period, accompanied by a table with timestamped data on air temperature, wet bulb temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, wind speed, gusts, and volts, with a heat control switch on the side.

NAM 12Km 6hr Precip, MSLP, 850mb Temp (Cº)

Weather map showing atmospheric pressure, temperature, and rainfall predictions for parts of North America and the Pacific Ocean. Symbols indicate high-pressure systems and weather fronts, with contour lines representing pressure levels.

NAM 12km | Composite Precip Type & Cloud Cover

Weather radar map showing composite reflectivity, precipitation type, and cloud cover over the western United States, with snow and freezing rain indicated in the color legend at the bottom.
Weather map showing 24-hour precipitation levels in inches across California, Nevada, and parts of surrounding states, with higher precipitation along the coast and in some areas inland.

NAM 3km | 24hr Precipitation (in)

A weather map showing snowfall over parts of the northwestern United States, including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and surrounding areas, with color-coded snow depth in inches. The map includes geographic borders, latitude and longitude lines, and a legend indicating snow depth ranges from 0 to over 48 inches.

NBM 2.5km West-Conus | 24hr Snow (in)

NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity 1000m AGL

Map of Washington state showing 1000m AGL reflectivity radar data as of December 8, 2025, with color-coded reflectivity levels from 8 to 72 dBZ, indicating weather activity such as potential precipitation.

WPC 2.5km 24hr Snow 90 Percentile (Inches)

Map showing 24-hour snowfall accumulation in inches for parts of the western United States, including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and surrounding states, valid at 12 UTC on December 9, 2025. Areas with higher snowfall are marked in pink and purple, with some regions showing up to 26.3 inches.
Color-coded weather map of California and surrounding areas showing temperature predictions at 24 hours, with temperatures ranging from 30.2°F to 83.8°F, highlighting cooler temperatures in the north and mountains and warmer temperatures in southern California.

NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MAX (ºf)

Map showing temperatures across California and surrounding states on December 9, 2025. Cold temperatures in blue shades, warmer areas in yellow, with specific temperature readings in Fahrenheit.

NAM 3km | 80m Wind Speeds + Streamlines (kts)

Weather map showing wind streamlines and wind speeds in knots along the West Coast of the United States, indicating strong winds offshore and varying wind speeds over land.

NAM 3km | 0-6km Wind Shear (kts) + Streamlines

Color-coded map showing wind shear levels in knots across California and surrounding regions, with red and dark colors indicating high wind shear, and blue and green indicating lower levels, valid for December 8, 2025.

NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MIN ºf)

NAM 3km | 925mb Wind (kts) + Streamlines

A weather map showing wind speeds and streamlines, with color-coded intensity indicating wind knots, over the Pacific Ocean and parts of the western United States, valid at 12Z on December 8, 2025.

POWHUNT’n 24hr Snowfall Guidance West

Map showing snow accumulation in inches over parts of the northern United States, with some areas indicating higher snowfall, especially in the North Dakota and Minnesota regions, during a 24-hour period ending on December 9, 2025.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Utah

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Colorado

Map of snowfall in inches across parts of Montana, Idaho, and North Dakota, showing areas with snow accumulation of up to 46.7 inches, with some regions experiencing heavy snow.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Washington

A weather map showing 24-hour snowfall in inches across parts of the northern United States, with a focus on Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and surrounding areas. The map uses color codes from gray to purple to indicate snowfall amounts, with the highest observed snowfall close to 34.9 inches in central Minnesota.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) British Columbia

Weather map of southeastern Alaska showing 24-hour snowfall measurements in centimeters, with the highest snowfall areas colored in pink and purple, indicating significant snow accumulation.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Alaska

Map showing snow accumulation in centimeters across Alaska and parts of Canada, with areas marked in different shades of blue, pink, and gray representing varying snow depths and Kuchera ratios.
Map showing snow accumulation in inches across parts of Montana, North Dakota, and surrounding states, with higher accumulations indicated by pink and purple colors and lower by blue and gray, valid for December 9, 2025.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Idaho

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Montana

Weather map showing 24-hour snow accumulation in inches across parts of Washington, Idaho, and Montana, with the heaviest snowfall indicated by pink and purple areas, and lighter snowfall in blue and gray regions.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Wyoming

Map showing predicted 24-hour snowfall accumulation in inches across parts of the northwestern United States and Canada, including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and British Columbia, with varying intensity indicated by a color scale from light gray to purple.

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Cooper Marketing & Media - Lake Tahoe Weather - Daily Lake Tahoe Snow forecasts - Accurate Lake Tahoe Weather | Lake Tahoe Snow and Resort Forecast
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