The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA
Date: Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Time: 06:15 PST

¡Buenos días, my friends!
Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokeLevelSolid, #TenaciousTuesday with a pixie-dusting on-tap North of I-80 tonight. We are talking maybe 1" to 2" atop Donner Pass, Sugar Bowl, Donner Ski Ranch, and Boreal, but the likelihood of a regional 2"+ is less than 2%. It’s a cold start at lake level, with upper-mountain temps in the mid-twenties. Mtn teams regionally are making snow where temps and wet-bulbs allow - I confirmed Northstar and Heavenly will have guns blazing when possible. We’re headed up to Boulder to get in a few early-morning hot laps on the #FreshCord to keep our legs, mind, body, and soul intact. #NeverWasteADay

Snow Conditions: Marginal due to the freeze-thaw pattern we are deep in. Mtn Operations teams are working 24/7 to keep the Cord carvilicious, base areas clean, and cross-over trails solid as we wait for the next round of #MaNatural. Long-range charts and NWS AFDs aren’t exactly a pleasure read, but they still offer a glimmer of hope for a switch as we roll hard into February.

“It is a mistake to think we will get rid of anger by changing everything in the world that makes us angry. Instead, we should look to change ourselves.”
― Dalai Lama XIV

Current Sector Data (Verified @ 0615 PST)

Regional Temperatures (Cold Start):

• South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 17ºF

• Truckee (KTRK): 16ºF

• Palisades - Siberia (8,700’): 28ºF

• Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward): 29ºF

• KirkwoodMtn Chair 6 (9,100’): 26ºF

• MammothMtn Summit (11,034’): 28ºF

Regional Winds (Picking Up):

• HippieHaus: SSW 5mph

• Camp Rich: SW 2mph

• Truckee: SSW 2mph

• Donner Pass: SSW 8mph

• Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward): N 28/33mph

• Palisades (Siberia): WSW 31/38mph

• KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6): SSE 24/31mph

• MammothMtn Summit: S 13/17mph

Roads (CalTrans @ 0601 PST):

• Status: Clear & Open.

• SR88 / HWY 50 / I-80: No traffic restrictions reported.

• Advisory: Westbound trucks stop at brake check area 0.5 mi west of Nyack.

• QuickMap: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

Weather Ahead: The Pixie Dusting & The Ridge

⚠️ Weather Advisories:

• Dense Fog Advisory: Central/Southern Sacramento Valley (10 PM tonight - 11 AM Tue). Drive safe if heading up from the Bay.

• Wind: Ridge gusts increasing tonight (up to 70 mph) with the incoming system.

The NWS Deep Dive (REV vs. STO):
The story is the weak “wintry system” passing through tonight into Wednesday morning, followed by a return to high pressure.

1. The “Pixie Dusting” (Tonight/Wednesday Morning):

• NWS Reno (REV): A shortwave moves through tonight.

• Timing: Snow chances start in NE CA/North Sierra around 6-7 PM, spreading to Tahoe/W NV later. Most precip tapers off by 6 AM Wednesday.

• Accumulation:

• Donner Pass: 30-40% chance of ≥ 1 inch.

• Tahoe Basin: ~30% chance of ≥ 0.1 inch at lake level (dusting).

• Western Lassen: Up to 3 inches (highest probability).

• Snow Levels: 4500-5000 ft, rising to 5500 ft Wednesday morning.

• Impact: Roads may be slick tonight/tomorrow morning due to cold temps and light snow.

• NWS Sacramento (STO): Agrees on “light rain and snow showers” mainly north of I-80. Precip amounts 0.01-0.30 inches. Little to no impact expected.

2. The Winds (Cranking Tonight):

• REV: Ridge winds will increase this afternoon ahead of the system. Gusts up to 60-70 mph are forecast for the Sierra crest tonight into Wednesday morning.

• Aviation: LLWS (Low-Level Wind Shear) and turbulence expected today through Wednesday morning.

3. The Outlook (Warming Trend):

• Mid-Week: Dry conditions return Wednesday afternoon.

• Weekend: A slow, gradual warming trend brings temps 5-10 degrees above normal. W NV valleys could hit 60ºF by Friday/Saturday.

• Next Chance: Another weak trough possible early next week (Feb 1-2) with 15-25% precip chances (low confidence).

Sierra Avalanche Centers

Riders: Always go to the official SAC sites for the latest updates. #KnowBeforeYouGo

Central Sierra (Tahoe/Carson Pass):

• Status: Low / Unlikely

• Issued: Monday, Jan 26 (Expires: Tuesday, Jan 27 @ 4:00 AM).

• Author: Brandon Schwartz

• The Bottom Line: Avalanches are unlikely today. Snow surfaces remain variable. Pay attention to terrain and change plans if you encounter instability.

• Link: Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast

Eastside Region (Mammoth):

• Status: Low / Unlikely

• Issued: Monday, Jan 26 (Expires: Tuesday, Jan 27 @ 7:00 AM).

• Author: Clancy Nelson

• The Bottom Line: Avalanches are unlikely but not impossible. Watch for small unstable wind drifts below ridges and in couloirs.

• Link: Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast

✈️ Aviation Section

Current Status: VFR (Wind Shear Alert)

• Today: VFR prevails most of the day.

• Tonight: Winds increase after 20Z (Sierra) and 00Z (W NV). LLWS and Turbulence expected.

• Precip: Light snow showers start ~02-03Z (North), spreading to Tahoe by 06Z. CIGS/VIS may drop briefly in showers, but sub-VFR conditions aren’t widely anticipated.

⚓ Tahoe Mariners Forecast

Advisory: None.

• Today: Partly cloudy. Light winds. Highs around 47. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

• Tonight: Mostly cloudy -> Chance of snow after midnight. Southwest winds around 10 mph, gusts to 20 mph. Lows 26-32.

• Wednesday: Sunny AM -> Partly cloudy. SW winds < 10 mph. Highs around 45.

Lake Data Tracking (Day-over-Day Delta):

• Water Temp: 44.0ºF (No Change).

• Lake Level: 6,227.53 feet (Down -0.01’ from yesterday).

The Bottom Line: We are tenacious in our pursuit of winter, even when the forecast is “pixie dust” and “variable.” Enjoy the On-piste Cord today - they are the reliable play. If you’re driving tonight or early tomorrow, watch for slick spots as that light wave moves through. Otherwise, keep the faith, keep’yr edges sharp, and we’ll see you on the Mtn.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop | RS#69