The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Time: 0516 PST

¡Buenos días my friends,

Cup'O'Joe in hand, #StokeLevelSteady, Holding, holding... Regionally, Summits above 8k picked up around 8" to 11" of the nasty #GorillaSnot—absolute BaseBuilding perfection. Winds are back this morning, Gusts in the 20-30mph range, stars above, high-elevation clouds passing by quickly.

KBBX and KDAX have little to no precip in the region; the precip pipeline is now squared up north, hammering from Eureka up to Crescent City. Guidance models (NAM 3km) have the Basin and Sierra Crest mostly broken and unstable for the day. NWS teams have Tahoe with a slight chance of Rain, Snain, or snow before 0700 (We are not seeing this), and then after 0100 tonight, "The Weather" moves in with snow levels forecast around 7,700', with winds increasing across the ridge tops.

Now, not to be a downer, but here is the caveat insert: way, way too much #OverStoking and prognostications are going down on social platforms. I saw a post for over 100" by Dec 26th and multiple 50-70" apocalyptic "Click-Bait" posts. It's #MotherNature, and a lot of precip is mostly targeting North of I-80 right now. Here in the Basin, YES, Rivers are at 1,750Cfs, winds are high across the ridges, YES, we received 11" of G-Snot at the upper elevations, and YES, we have more "weather" in the forecast. Let's be stoked if we are blessed with 12" to 24" of G-snot top to bottom over the next 72-96hrs so we can get back to the business of skiing, riding, snowshoeing, sledneck'n, and enjoying winter here in Lake Tahoe. That is all... #StokeLevel 11 - Tahoe Sector, Out.

Current Sector Data (Verified @ 0516 PST)

Regional Temperatures:

• South Lake Tahoe (KTLV) at 6,308': 48ºF (Warm sector holding)

• Truckee (KTRK) at 5,899': 41ºF

• Mammoth Mtn Race (MTH03) at 11,034': 22ºF (The only spot truly freezing)

• Chair 6 Ridge (9,100'): 34ºF (Just above the freezing mark)

Regional Winds:

• HippieHaus: 200º (SW) 23mph

• Truckee: 192º (SSW) 13mph

• Donner Pass: 216º (SSW) 18mph

• Carson Pass: 184º (S) 41/56mph (Ripping up top)

• Mammoth Race (MTH03): 189º (S) 29mph

Roads (CalTrans @ 0440):

• Sierra Sector: ALL CLEAR (SR88, Hwy 50, I-80).

  • Note: While surfaces are clear of controls now, expect wet/slick conditions. This status will change rapidly tonight.

Forecast Update: The Lull Before The Hammer

We have a very specific window of opportunity today. We are looking at a "Brief Lull" before the major holiday system impacts the region starting tonight.

1. The "Lull" (Today):

• Condition: Mostly dry today. Temperatures are running 10-15 degrees above average (Mid 40s to Low 50s).

• Action: Mtn Ops teams are using this window to prep for the coming burial. It’s a great day to check your drainage at home.

2. The "Hammer" (Tonight - Friday):

• Timing: Precip returns late tonight (after 10 PM).

• Snow Levels (The Magic Number): This is the key update. Snow levels start at 6,500' (Lassen/Tahoe) tonight. NWS Reno notes a "Wet-Bulb Effect" could drop snow levels rapidly to 6,000' by Wednesday afternoon and as low as 4,500' by Christmas Day.

• Totals: NWS Sacramento is calling for snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour Wednesday/Thursday.

⚠️ Active Weather Advisories

• WINTER STORM WARNING: Effective 10 PM Tonight - 10 AM Friday. (Sierra Zones).

• FLOOD WATCH: Effective Evening through Wednesday Evening. (Tahoe Basin & West Slope).

• HIGH WIND WATCH: Tuesday Afternoon - Friday Afternoon. (Sacramento Valley/Foothills).

• LAKE WIND ADVISORY: 4 PM Today - 4 PM Wednesday. (Pyramid/Tahoe).

AFD Comparative Summary: Reno vs. Sacramento

• NWS Reno (REV): * Nuance: They are laser-focused on the "Wet-Bulb Effect." They highlight that heavy precipitation bursts could drag snow levels down 1,500ft faster than the models predict. This is the difference between rain and snow at lake level tomorrow.

  • Wind: Forecasting ridge gusts of 80-100 mph through Friday.

  • Hydrology: They are watching the Susan River closely for minor flooding on Christmas Eve.

• NWS Sacramento (STO): * Nuance: They are emphasizing "Major Holiday Travel Impacts." They explicitly state the "most favorable travel window" is through Tuesday afternoon. After that, it’s a no-go.

  • Thunderstorms: Uniquely, they are calling out isolated thunderstorms possible Wednesday midday through Thursday evening, which could intensify rainfall rates.

• The Consensus: Both offices agree: Today is the break. Tonight, the door slams shut.

✈️ Aviation Section

Current Status: VFR (Briefly)

• Today: Airmass mixes out today. VFR conditions prevail for the daylight hours.

• Hazards: 700mb winds are at 40 knots. Expect LLWS (Low-Level Wind Shear) and mountain wave activity even with clear skies.

• Tonight: Conditions deteriorate rapidly to MVFR/IFR after 06Z (10 PM).

• Outlook: Widespread terrain obscurations and mountain snow return Wednesday.

⚓ Tahoe Mariners Forecast

Lake Tahoe:

• ⚠️ WINTER STORM WARNING (For the Lake): In effect from 10 PM Tonight to 10 AM Friday.

• Today: Mostly cloudy. South winds 10-15 mph, gusts increasing to 30 mph in the afternoon. Wave heights up to 2 feet.

• Tonight (The Shift): Winds ramp up. Gusts to 40 mph.

• Wednesday: Rain and Snow. Gusts to 40 mph.

• Coop's Note: It is rare to see a "Winter Storm Warning" listed directly in the Marine forecast header. This indicates visibility on the water will be near zero with wind-driven snow/rain. Get off the water.

Sierra Avalanche Centers

Central Sierra (Tahoe/Carson Pass):

• Status: Complex / Early Season.

• Issued: Monday, Dec 22 (Expires this morning, Dec 23 @ 0651).

• The Bottom Line: We are in a transition. "Heavy rain and high elevation snow... with lower snow levels." Slabs of wind-drifted snow are forming in open areas. The primary hazard remains collision due to the shallow snowpack.

  • Note: Watch for the updated bulletin later this morning as the Winter Storm Warning takes effect.

Eastside Region (Mammoth):

• Status: Rising Hazard.

• The Bottom Line: Hazard is expected to rise as the powerful storm impacts the region. Avoid steep terrain during and immediately after the stormy period.

The Bottom Line: We have a 12-hour window of calm. Use it. The #StokeLevel is high for the Christmas refresh, but we have to get through the wind and the transition first. Support your Mtn Ops teams—they are about to go to war with the elements to get us open for the holidays.

Stay'nThirsty for POW,

Coop | RS#69