Tahoe Weather - Feb 5, 2026

The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: February 6, 2026

¡Buenos días, my friends!

Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokelevelzSolid on a #FreakFlagFly’nFriday. A change in the pattern begins, with high-clouds filtering in along the Sierra from the southeast, arriving courtesy of #MotherNature that has formed along the coast of southern California. Snow showers above 7,000 feet will begin to rotate northward into the Sierra this morning, lifting as far north as the #DirtySouth this afternoon. Today’s rift in the force is central to Mono and MammothMtn; nothing of significance is happening here in the basin.

Take a look at the guidance models (below 👇): the NAM 3km 24hr precip shows precip down in the Mono and MammothMtn zones, not reaching the basin. Remember, this is round one of several smaller systems, and, according to the guidance, all eyes should be on the horizon Monday forward. Off to Palisades Tahoe for Day One of three, IFSA Junior 3-Star. Let’s get to the data.

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions as of 0516)

  • South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 28ºF

  • Truckee (KTRK): 28ºF

  • Palisades (Siberia 8,700’): 35ºF

  • Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 35ºF

  • Kirkwood (Chair 6 9,100’): 32ºF

  • Mammoth (Summit 11,034’): 26ºF

Winds (as of 0516):

  • HippieHaus / Camp Rich: SSW 1-3mph

  • Donner Pass: SW 5/9mph

  • Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 22/25mph

  • Palisades (Siberia): WSW 19/25mph

  • Kirkwood (Chair 6): SSW 14/16mph

  • Mammoth (Summit): SW 14/20mph

📡  REV (Reno) vs. STO (Sacramento) Deep Dive

  • The Consensus: Warm and mostly dry for the weekend, but the long-awaited pattern shift is finally materializing on the maps for early next week.

  • Changes & Updates:

  • The Friday “Under-Cutter”: Clouds are arriving from a SoCal low. REV and STO agree on a 30% chance of light snow showers above 7,000 ft, primarily for Mono/Alpine counties. Amounts are light: 0.5" to 1.0" fresh.

  • The “Monday Monster” Potential: There is a significant model divergence this morning. The European (ECMWF) and UKMET models are suddenly trending much wetter, suggesting a stalled front on Tuesday could drop up to 2 inches of liquid (QPF). This is a massive jump from yesterday’s “dusting” forecast.

  • Snow Level Plunge: Sunday starts high at 8,000 ft, but levels are verified to tumble to 5,000 ft by Monday night and possibly hitting valley floors (4,000 ft) by Wednesday morning.

  • Nuance Check: While STO notes the Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled early yesterday, REV is still warning of slantwise visibility issues in the valleys due to stagnant air before the front arrives.

⚠️ Weather Advisories

  • Tahoe/Sierra: None.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report

Status: Low Danger (#KnowBeforeYouGo)

  • Central Sierra (Steve Reynaud): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

  • Issued: Feb 5 | Expires: Feb 6, 4:00 AM.

  • Bottom Line: Avalanches remain unlikely today. Wet snow is expected to form on sun-exposed slopes as daytime warming occurs. Practice safe travel protocols.

  • Eastside Region (Sean Smollen): https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

  • Issued: Feb 5 | Expires: Feb 6, 7:00 AM.

  • Bottom Line: Avalanches remain unlikely. Monitor for afternoon warming and expect a variety of surfaces.

✈️ Tahoe Aviation Section

  • Status: VFR through the period.

  • Details: Light winds today. Main concern is hazy skies and slantwise visibility in the valleys due to strong inversions. Terminals should see clearing tonight as the weak SoCal low exits.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report

  • Water Temp: 44.3ºF (Delta: +0.2ºF).

  • Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.52 feet (Delta: 0.00 ft—Steady).

  • Forecast: Cloudy morning, mostly cloudy afternoon with a slight chance of rain. Light winds, waves < 1 foot. Highs near 51ºF.

🛣️ Road Status (as of 0516)

☁️ The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook

  • Weekend Pulse: Saturday and Sunday will hold onto that warm, dry flavor. Highs in the 40s/50s.

  • The Monday Reset: A narrow trough digs in. We are looking at a snow-level roller coaster. Most models average out to 0.6–0.7 inches of liquid near the crest by Wednesday morning, but the “Fantasy Range” models are hinting at a much bigger Tuesday.

  • Valentine’s & Beyond: The pattern reloads around the 14th–18th. Ensembles show a broader trough digging into the West Coast. This is the window for those potential Atmospheric River signals we’ve been hunting.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop

A weather map of North America showing high and low pressure systems, temperature, and precipitation patterns. There is a low-pressure system over the eastern US, a high-pressure system over the central US, and multiple low-pressure systems over the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The map features various isobars, precipitation areas in green, and temperature contours in red and blue.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

A weather map of North America showing 500mb height, anomalies, and pressure systems. It highlights a high-pressure system over the southeastern United States, a low-pressure system over the north-central region, and a cold Arctic air mass over northern Canada.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Map of the United States showing 24-hour precipitation forecast in inches for February 11, 2026, with areas of rain in green and blue, and some regions with no precipitation, outlined by state borders.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 24-hr Precipitation (Inches)

Weather forecast map showing 24-hour precipitation in inches over parts of Mexico, Central America, and southern United States, with the highest rain accumulation in southern Mexico and Guatemala, reaching up to 0.37 inches.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 24-hrPrecip (in.)

Map showing forecasted total snow accumulation in inches across California, Nevada, and parts of surrounding states, valid for February 11, 2026, with the heaviest snowfall of up to 9.4 inches in the Sierra Nevada region.

ECMWF AIFS AI Ens 0.25º - Total Snow (10:1 Ratio) (Inches)

Graph showing wind direction, wind speed, and gusts over 24 hours with data table below detailing timestamp, air temperature, wet bulb temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, speed, gusts, volts, and max amperage.

Chair Six(6) Ridge 2.6.26 - KirkwoodMtn - 9,100’

Weather map showing forecast data for the Western United States, including California, Nevada, and parts of Oregon, with contour lines indicating 6-hour precipitation, mean sea level pressure, and 850mb temperature, valid at 6 AM on February 6, 2026.

NAM 3Km 6hr Precip, MSLP, 850mb Temp (Cº)

Weather map of California and neighboring states showing composite reflectivity and precipitation type at 00 UTC on February 6, 2026. The map includes various weather radar stations marked with their codes.

NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type

Map showing snow accumulation in California and surrounding states, with light precipitation, mostly less than 0.1 inches.
Map showing the 24-hour snow accumulation in inches across parts of California, Oregon, Nevada, and surrounding states, valid on February 8, 2026, at 12:00 PM.

NBM Para v5 2.5km 24-hr Snow (Inches)

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)

National Weather Service map showing 24-hour precipitation in inches over a region of the western United States on February 7, 2026. The map indicates areas with light to moderate rainfall, mostly along mountainous and coastal regions, with some isolated storms in the inland areas.
Map of California and surrounding areas showing temperature data in Fahrenheit, with cooler temperatures in the north and warmer in the south, including mountain ranges and coastal regions.

NAM 3km | 24hr Precipitation (in)

Weather map showing wind speeds, streamlines, and precipitation over a region including California and surrounding areas, with wind speeds measured in knots and color-coded precipitation intensity.

NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MIN ºf)

NAM 3km | 80m Wind Speeds + Streamlines (kts)

Weather map showing wind shear in knots across California and surrounding states, with areas of high wind shear in red and low in blue, valid for 12z on February 8, 2026.

NAM 3km | 0-6km Wind Shear (kts) + Streamlines

Weather map showing wind speeds, streamlines, and mean sea level pressure across parts of Greece, the Balkans, and the eastern Mediterranean on February 8, 2026. The map includes color-coded wind speed in knots and isobar lines indicating atmospheric pressure in hPa.

NAM 3km | 925mb Wind (kts) + Streamlines

Map showing snow accumulation in inches across parts of Minnesota and surrounding states, with localized areas of higher snow on February 8, 2026.
Weather map showing 24-hour snowfall accumulation in inches across parts of the western United States on February 8, 2026. The map highlights a weather system with the highest snowfall of 0.4 inches in southwestern Colorado.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Utah

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Colorado

Weather map showing snow over parts of Idaho and Montana with varying intensities indicated by colors, along with other regions experiencing different weather conditions. The map includes latitude and longitude lines, and a legend at the bottom indicating snow depth in inches.
Weather map showing 24-hour snow accumulation in centimeters across the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, with areas of heavy snowfall in purple and blue, and lighter snow and no snow in gray and white; the map is from February 8, 2026.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) WA

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) British Columbia

Weather map showing snow accumulation forecast over the U.S.-Canada border area on February 8, 2026, with snowfall amounts in inches, including some snowfall in the northern Rockies and the northern Great Plains.
Map showing predicted snow accumulation in inches across the northwestern United States on February 8, 2026, with areas of higher snow levels in dark gray, light blue, and purple. The map includes geographic and state boundaries.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Idaho

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Montana

Map showing snow accumulation in inches over a region in the western United States, including parts of Utah, Nevada, and California, valid at noon on February 8, 2026, with some areas experiencing up to approximately 4.8 inches of snow.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Wyoming

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