#HippieHaus | Kirkwood & Carson Pass Weather Forecast Guidance

Date: November 13, 2025 | Morning Brief @ 05:50 PDT

¡Buenos días, my friends

Cup'o'Joe in hand with the rain just starting to fall here at the #HippieHaus. 33.9º, Wb temp, 32.5º, winds 50.3/62.1 204º (SW) at 9,100', SLT Air (KTVL) 50º, winds S, 6/11mph, TRK (KTRK), winds SSW, 20/25mph. Buckle up for wind and periods of rain/snain, as well as high-elevation snow, today through Sunday.

Bottom Line: The storm is here. It's a windy, wet, and warm start, with high-impact winds today followed by crashing snow levels tonight and Friday.

The Warm AR-Tap: This is a two-part event. Today is all about the warm, wet, and windy Atmospheric River flow. Snow levels are very high (8,500-9,500 feet). Part two is the cold front, which arrives overnight and drops snow levels for a #MaNatural #BaseBuilder event on Friday.

The Sunrise today is 06:34, and the Sunset is 16:54.

THE COUNTDOWN IS ON

• MT Rose - On-Standby!

• Mammoth Mountain Opening Day (Nov 14): Tomorrow!

• Boreal Ski Resort Opening Day (Nov 20): 7 Days

• Alta Ski Resort Opening Day (Nov 21): 8 Days

• Bear Valley Opening Day (Nov 21): 8 Days

• Heavenly Mountain Resort Opening Day (Nov 21): 8 Days

• Sugar Bowl Opening Day (Nov 21): 8 Days

• China Peak Opening Day (Nov 21): 8 Days

• Whistler Blackcomb Opening Day (Nov 21): 8 Days

• Big Sky Opening Day (Nov 26): 13 Days

• Palisades Tahoe Opening Day (Nov 26): 13 Days

• Dodge Ridge Opening Day (Nov 27): 14 Days

• Snowbird Ski Resort Opening Day (Nov 27): 14 Days

• Sun Valley Opening Day (Nov 27): 14 Days

• Crystal Mtn Opening Day (Nov 28): 15 Days

• Jackson Hole Resort Opening Day (Nov 28): 15 Days

• Mt. Bachelor Opening Day (Nov 28): 15 Days

• Mt. Hood Meadows Opening Day (Nov 28): 15 Days

• Sierra-at-Tahoe Opening Day (Nov 28): 15 Days

• Revelstoke Mountain Resort Opening Day (Nov 29): 16 Days

• Diamond Peak Ski Resort Opening Day (Dec 4): 21 Days

• Kicking Horse Opening Day (Dec 5): 22 Days

• Kirkwood Mountain Resort Opening Day (Dec 5): 22 Days

• Stevens Pass Opening Day (Dec 5): 22 Days

• Homewood Mountain Resort Opening Day (Dec 12): 29 Days

• June Mountain Opening Day (Dec 20): 37 Days

Tahoe Basin Forecast | North & South

• Today's High: ~ 52°F

• Tonight's Low: ~ 28°F (as the cold front passes)

• Winds: Strong South-Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 55 mph. Ridge gusts will exceed 100 mph.

• Sky Conditions: Overcast. Rain.

• Precip/Snow: Rain at lake level, possibly heavy at times. Snow levels are very high, 8,500-9,500 feet. Snow levels crash to 6,000-7,000 feet overnight.

In Search of Pow:

• Kirkwood (CA): Status: CLOSED. This is the favored zone, but it's getting a soaking first. NWS Sac (STO) is clear: This is a heavy, wet #BaseBuilder. 1-2+ FEET are possible, but above 8,000 feet through Friday. The base will get wet, then buried.

• Mammoth (CA): Status: CLOSED. Opening Day (tomorrow!) is looking wild. NWS Las Vegas (VEF) is forecasting "damaging winds" and moisture. Snow levels are high (9,000+ ft), meaning this will be a top-of-the-mountain-only event. A very tough opener for Mtn Ops.

• Jackson Hole (WY): Status: CLOSED. NWS Riverton confirms they are on the far eastern edge of this system. They will see increasing winds but miss the main AR moisture tap.

• Snowbird/Alta (UT): Status: CLOSED. The ridge holds. NWS Salt Lake City (SLC) shows they are high and dry, completely missing this storm. They remain in a clear, mild pattern.

• Whistler (CAN): Status: CLOSED. Environment Canada has a Rainfall Warning in effect. Freezing levels are sky-high (2000+ meters). This is a heavy #GorillaSnot event for the base, with snow only on the highest peaks.

• Revelstoke (CAN): Status: CLOSED. Similar to Whistler but slightly cooler. Still, high freezing levels (1800-2000m) mean rain at the base and mid-mountain. Not the #BaseBuilder they are looking for.

Snowmaking Opportunities (Tahoe Region)

• Bottom Line: The window is HARD CLOSED. (Wb Temp = 32.5º, Air Temp = 33.9º). It is raining.

• My Intel: A full salute to the Mtn Ops teams who are now in "storm prep" and "water management" mode. All tactical strike opportunities are gone. The focus is on securing the mountains for this wind event and preparing for the cold air... and #MaNatural... arriving tomorrow.

Backcountry & Avalanche Report

Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast | Central Sierra Nevada

• Intel: SAC issued its first advisory of the event this morning (Nov 13).

• Bottom Line: The avalanche danger is INCREASING. New, heavy, wet snow (Snain) is being loaded onto bare ground. Wet loose and new wind slab problems will develop at high elevations today. #LowTide is still in effect, but the new snow is a hazard. #KnowBeforeYouAGO

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center (ESAC) | Eastside-Region

• Intel: ESAC is not yet issuing daily forecasts.

• Bottom Line: #LowTide

Lake Tahoe Data Points | For the Surfers, Sailors & Paddlers

• Lake Water Temperature (Mid-Lake buoy): ~55.1°F (12.8°C).

• Lake Level (Tahoe City): ~6,226.67 feet.

• Marina Forecast & Wave Heights: DANGEROUS. A Lake Wind Advisory is in EFFECT.

• Wind Advisories: Lake Wind Advisory.

• Winds: Southwest winds 20-30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Stay off the water.

Aviation Forecast | KTRK & KTVL

• Overall: MVFR conditions, deteriorating to IFR.

• Winds: Lake Wind Advisory. Significant LLWS and severe mountain wave turbulence.

• Weather: Rain, Obscured Ridges, Low Ceilings. Not a day for VFR.

Sierra Road Conditions

• Caltrans QuickMap Official Link: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

• Morning Assessment:

• Wind Advisories: WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT for all routes. High-profile vehicles (vans, trailers, RVs) are not recommended.

• CHAIN CONTROLS: NONE (Currently).

• PRECIP: Roads are WET. Drive with extreme caution due to wind.

• I-80 (Donner Pass): Open. Wet. High Wind Warning.

• US-50 (Echo Summit): Open. Wet. High Wind Warning.

• SR-88 (Carson Pass / Carson Spur): Open. Wet. High Wind Warning.

Seven-Day Sierra Forecast

• Today (Thu): (STORM DAY) Windy. Rain. High-elevation snow. High: 52°F. Low: 28°F.

• Friday: #MaNatural. Snow levels crash. Snow showers. High: 34°F. Low: 21°F.

• Saturday: Partly Sunny & Cold. High: 38°F. Low: 22°F.

• Sunday: Sunny & Milder. High: 47°F. Low: 27°F.

• Monday: Sunny. High: 53°F. Low: 30°F.

• Tuesday: Sunny. High: 55°F. Low: 32°F.

• Wednesday: Sunny & Mild. High: 56°F. Low: 33°F.

The Long-Range Pipeline | System Analysis

• The Warm AR: The "storm door" is wide open, but the first system is a warm, wet Atmospheric River. The NWS AFDs are locked in on high winds and high snow levels for today.

• The #MaNatural #BaseBuilder:

• Timing: This is a two-part event. Part 1 (Today) is warm, wet, and windy (100+ mph ridge gusts). Part 2 (Tonight/Friday) is the cold front. This is when the #MaNatural hunt begins.

• Roads: High-profile vehicle restrictions are in effect today. Expect Chain Controls on all passes by Friday morning as rain turns to snow.

• Snow Levels & Totals (The Key Change): The key is the timing.

• Today: Snow levels are 8,500-9,500 feet.

• Tonight: Crashing to 6,000 feet.

• Friday: 5,000-6,000 feet.

• Tahoe Basin: Wet, wet, wet. This is a rain event at lake level. 2-4 inches of snow are possible above 7,500 feet by Friday, but it is expected to be wet and dense.

• Kirkwood/Carson Pass (South of Hwy 50): This is the favored zone. NWS Sac is calling for 1-2+ FEET, but only above 8,000 feet. This is a heavy, dense, wind-impacted #BaseBuilder.

In Summary: #MotherNature has arrived. Today is about managing the wind and the rain. Batten down the hatches, secure loose items, and stay off the lake. The real #MaNatural potentially falls tonight as the cold air arrives and the snow levels finally drop.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop | RS#69