The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Lon: 38.880336. Lat: -120.022771 Elev: 6,380

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025

¡Buenos días, my friends, con Cup'O'Joe en la mano ~ #StokeLevelSteady at 10.2 #ScholasticSunday. It's 04:54 AM, and we have a mixed bag of temps: 41º at the #HippieHaus, a crisp 30º in Truckee (KTRK), while the ridge tops are sitting in the breeze at 31.9º (9,100'). Winds are picking up over the crest (SW 20-29 mph), signaling a change in the air.

Looking at the cams, Mammoth, Mt. Rose, Kirkwood, and Heavenly Mtn Teams have been grinding 24/7 to refresh the surfaces. To be transparent, the weather reporting is tough this morning, I needed a second, and a third cup'o' to pull through. The consensus from the NWS AFDs and other solid forecasters is clear: "For the most part, there is no sign of a meaningful precipitation event with the strong ridge blocking the Pacific storm door."

That said, today, we still have the machine-made mix to slide upon. The Mtn Teams will keep up the hard work, so get out and get'cha some today. It's a Dualsport Sunday—Ride in the AM, Bike/Paddle in the PM. #JustDoIt

The Intel:

🚠 Bull Wheels turning at: Heavenly, MammothMtn, Mt. Rose, Boreal, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge, and China Peak.

⚠️ Wind Watch: Ridge gusts increasing today (40-60 mph possible). Upper mountain lifts could see holds later in the day.

🚗 Roads: ALL CLEAR on 50, 80, & 88. Watch for heavy westbound traffic leaving the basin.

The Mindset: While the long-range models are "all over the place" regarding the next storm cycle (some say Dec 5th, others say dry), the play today is simple: Boot up and enjoy the variety Tahoe offers. Each turn today is better than NO turns at all.

Looking forward to the next 3–7 days:

• Potential Rain and Snow Outlook: Dry Pattern Continues. The "Inside Slider" for today/tonight is moisture-starved. Mammoth has a 10-20% chance of a dusting Tuesday night, but otherwise, we are dry through at least mid-week.

• Long Range Intel: Forecast confidence is LOW for anything beyond Dec 5th.

• Signal: A weak cold front may clip the region on Wednesday (Dec 3), bringing a shot of colder air and maybe a few flurries, but accumulation is unlikely.

• The "Way Out": Some models hint at a pattern shift around Dec 8th, but others keep the ridge locked. We are in a "wait and see" mode.

• Snow Levels: N/A

• Temperatures: Cooling Trend. Today is the last mild day. Highs will drop from the upper 40s today into the low 40s for the week. Overnight lows will dip into the teens/20s—great news for snowmaking teams DOE/Aspects.

• Winds / Wind Conditions: Breezy. Southwest winds increasing today (15-25 mph at lake level, 40+ mph on ridges) as the weak trough passes to the north.

• Road Conditions: ALL CLEAR. Heavy holiday traffic is the main hazard today. Slow'yr'roll and give everyone space.

The Weather Ahead | Temperatures | Winds | Winter

Forecasted Temperatures (Today's High / Tonight's Low):

• #HippieHaus (SLT / 6,380'): 49° / 20°

• Kirkwood (Base / 7,800'): 42° / 18°

• Truckee (North Shore / 5,800'): 44° / 15°

• Mammoth Mtn (Base / 8,900'): 36° / 19°

Timing of wind direction/wind speeds: West/Southwest winds increasing this morning (10-15 mph), gusting to 25 mph by afternoon. Ridge gusts peaking tonight.

Seven(7) Day forecast (Lake Level Highs/Lows):

• Today (Sun): 49° / 20° (Breezy, Cooling)

• Monday: 45° / 18° (Sunny, Crisp)

• Tuesday: 48° / 22° (Sunny)

• Wednesday: 44° / 19° (Colder, Breezy)

• Thursday: 42° / 18° (Sunny)

• Friday: 45° / 20° (Sunny)

• Saturday: 46° / 22° (Sunny)

Sierra Avalanche Center (Tahoe / Carson Pass):

• Issued: Nov 28 at 12:02 PM.

• Status: #LowTide.

• Hazard: #SnowSharks.

• Discussion: Shallow snowpack with exposed obstacles remains the main hazard.

• Link: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center (Mammoth Zone):

• Issued: Nov 28 at 10:02 AM.

• Status: #LowTide.

• Hazard: #SnowSharks.

• Discussion: Thin coverage. Northeast winds may have created isolated slabs.

• Link: https://bit.ly/EasternSierraAvalancheForecast

⚓ Marine Forecast for Lake Tahoe:

• Status: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

• TODAY: Mostly cloudy AM then clearing. West winds 10-15 mph, Gusts to 25 mph. Wave Heights up to 2 feet.

• TONIGHT: Clear then partly cloudy. East winds 10-15 mph, Gusts to 30 mph. Wave Heights up to 2 feet.

• Mariner Note: It will become a’bit choppy midday. Reco a 4/3 or 5/4 wetty if you're paddling/Foil’n.

✈️ Aviation Forecast:

• KTRK (Truckee): VFR prevailing. Mountain Wave Turbulence likely today due to increased ridge winds (FL100 35-50 kts).

• KTVL (South Lake Tahoe): VFR. Breezy surface winds (West 10-15 kts).

• Hazards: Moderate turbulence/LLWS in the lee of the Sierra crest this afternoon/evening.

Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) Summaries

For #HippieHaus & Mammoth (NWS Reno):

• Confidence: HIGH for wind/cooling today; LOW for any precipitation this week.

• Discussion: A "slider" trough passes to the north today, increasing winds and dropping temps to seasonal averages. Another weak system on Wednesday brings a reinforcing shot of cold air. "Precipitation chances appear rather dire for the next several days."

For Carson Pass / KirkwoodMtn Zone (NWS Sacramento):

• Mountain Focus: Breezy north-to-east winds developing late Sunday/Monday. Sunny skies return next week with below-normal temperatures in the valleys.

Summary: On this #ScholasticSunday, we take the lesson: Patience. The storm door is locked, but the playground is still open. The winds are up, temps are dropping, and the crowds are heading home. Use today to squeeze in a lap, hit the trail, or just enjoy the crisp air. Winter is a marathon, not a sprint. We are ready when she decides to turn it on.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop | RS#69

POWHUNT’n 24hr Snowfall Guidance West