#HippieHaus | Kirkwood & Carson Pass Weather Forecast Guidance

Date: October 30, 2025 | Morning Brief @ 0545 PDT

¡Buenos dìas my friends,

Cup'O'Joe in hand on a #TheologianThursday, #StokeLevelSoild with a 10.6 on the books for the day, winds SSE (160º) at 2/3mph, lake #FlatAss calm, 4/3 material for a foil, ski, surf, or paddle. Temps this morning here at the #HippieHaus 29º / SLT (KTVL) 28º / TRK (KTRK) at 28º...

Bottom Line: The high-pressure ridge is in full command. Today is a carbon copy of yesterday, only warmer. Expect unseasonably warm temperatures (10-15º degrees above average) with highs soaring into the mid-60s. This dry, sunny, and calm pattern is locked in through the weekend.

Sunrise today is 07:20, Sunset is 18:07.

THE COUNTDOWN IS ON

• Mt. Rose Ski Resort Opening Day (Nov 8): 9 Days

• Mammoth Mountain Opening Day (Nov 14): 15 Days

• Boreal Ski Resort Opening Day (Nov 20): 21 Days

• Alta Ski Resort Opening Day (Nov 21): 22 Days

• Heavenly Mountain Resort Opening Day (Nov 21): 22 Days

• Palisades Tahoe Opening Day (Nov 22): 23 Days

• Snowbird Ski Resort Opening Day (Nov 27): 28 Days

• Sierra-at-Tahoe Opening Day (Nov 28): 29 Days

• China Peak Opening Day (Nov 28): 29 Days

• Bear Valley Opening Day (Nov 28): 29 Days

• Dodge Ridge Opening Day (Nov 28): 29 Days

• Revelstoke Mountain Resort Opening Day (Nov 29): 30 Days

• Sugar Bowl Opening Day (Nov 29): 30 Days

• Diamond Peak Ski Resort Opening Day (Dec 4): 35 Days

• Kirkwood Mountain Resort Opening Day (Dec 5): 36 Days

• Homewood Mountain Resort Opening Day (Dec 12): 43 Days

• June Mountain Opening Day (Dec 13): 44 Days

Tahoe Basin Forecast | North & South

Truckee / North Lake Tahoe

• Today's High: ~ 66°F

• Tonight's Low: ~ 34°F

• Winds: Light and variable, 5 mph or less.

• Sky Conditions: Sunny.

• Precip/Snow: None.

South Lake Tahoe

• Today's High: ~ 65°F

• Tonight's Low: ~ 36°F

• Winds: Light and variable.

• Sky Conditions: Sunny.

• Precip/Snow: None.

Kirkwood & Carson Pass Zone

• Snow Forecast: Full sun continues to melt any remaining high-elevation snow.

• Temperatures: Highs today climbing to the upper 50s, near 58°F. Lows tonight in the mid-30s.

• Winds: Light winds.

Mammoth Mountain Intel

• Today's High: ~ 65°F

• Tonight's Low: ~ 38°F

• Sky Conditions: Sunny.

• Winds: Light.

Snowmaking Opportunities

• Bottom Line: The ridge is making it tough, but salute the Mtn Ops teams.

• My Intel: Respect to the snowmakers. This morning's crisp 27-29ºF was a brief, tactical window for resorts with high-efficiency systems. However, that window is slamming shut. Tonight's lows rebound to the mid-to-upper 30s across the region (including Mammoth), and with daytime highs in the 60s, widespread production is not in the cards. We're 100% reliant on Mother Nature for a pattern change.

Backcountry & Avalanche Report

Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast | Central Sierra Nevada

• Bottom Line: SAC is not yet in seasonal operations (scheduled to start Nov 2nd).

• #LowTide conditions.

Lake Tahoe Data Points | For the Sailors & Paddlers

• Lake Water Temperature (Mid-Lake Buoy): ~55.5ºF (Your 4/3 is the right call).

• Lake Level (Tahoe City): ~6,226.69 feet (Dropping slowly).

• Marina Forecast & Wave Heights: #FlatAss calm. Winds light and variable. Waves less than 1 foot. Perfect foil, paddle, or surf conditions 4/3~wetty recommended…

Aviation Forecast | KTRK & KTVL

• Overall: VFR conditions continue.

• Winds: Light and variable surface winds.

• Weather: Clear skies.

Sierra Road Conditions

• The Official Source for 100% real-time road conditions is the Caltrans QuickMap.

• Official Link: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

• My Morning Assessment: All passes are open with NO chain controls. Roads are clear and dry. Beautiful day for a drive.

• I-80 (Donner Pass): Open.

• US-50 (Echo Summit): Open.

• SR-88 (Carson Pass / Carson Spur): Open.

Seven-Day Sierra Forecast

• Today (Thu): Sunny & Warm. High: 66°F. Low: 36°F.

• Friday (Halloween): Sunny. High: 67°F. Low: 38°F.

• Saturday: Sunny. High: 68°F. Low: 38°F.

• Sunday: Sunny. High: 67°F. Low: 37°F.

• Monday: Sunny. High: 65°F. Low: 36°F.

• Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 62°F. Low: 35°F.

• Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 60°F. Low: 34°F.

The Long-Range Pipeline | System Analysis

Let's dig into the AFDs from NWS Reno (REV) and Sac (STO) for any changes:

• The Ridge is King: The AFDs are in lockstep. The high-pressure ridge is the only story. "Dry and warmer weather prevails this week," says NWS Sac. NWS Reno confirms the "warming and drying trend" continues.

• Yesterday's "Break" Fizzles: The "subtle breakdown" we were watching for late this week has fizzled into nothing. The latest NWS Reno discussion only mentions "breezy winds to the Sierra ridges" for Friday as a weak system passes far to our north. No precip, no real change.

• The Next Hint (Low Confidence): The crystal ball is now focused on mid-next week (Nov 5-6). NWS Sac notes, "Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis are suggesting the potential for a weather system... as upper level troughing develops offshore." However, they stress low confidence, and the models have already decreased rain totals from yesterday's runs. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 day outlook still favors above-normal temps for our area.

Summary: This ridge is strong and stubborn. The "bonus fall" continues, and it's looking even warmer this weekend than previously thought. That quick chill this morning was the last good snowmaking window for a while. I am watching that low-confidence signal for the middle of next week—it's the first hint of this ridge maybe breaking down, but I'm not holding my breath.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop. | RS#69