Storm cycle timeline for Tahoe sector showing weather advisories, main storm event, and related hazards from February 9 to February 17, 2023.

The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: February 9, 2026

¡Buenos días, my friends!

Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokelevelzSolid on a #MindfulMonday morning. Back at the #HippieHaus offices after three amazing days of #TahoeFreeride up at Palisades. Yesterday’s event was WOW, just WOW…

Ok, straight to it, had to grab a few extra winks this AM, and then yep, prime and stimulate the bean with a little weather download. SNOW, SNOW, and SNOW is in the forecast, but with a few caveat inserts, a downgrade, a stall, and a “BUST” scenario for the mid-week wave.

NWS teams in SAC and RNO align on the slowdown. The system has trended slower, pushing the heaviest snow into the Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday window. A Winter Weather Advisory is locked in from 10 pm Monday through 4 pm Wednesday. Snow levels are the tricky part—starting around 5,000-6,000 feet early Tuesday, then dropping to 4,500 feet Wednesday.

Now, I know I have been a lil-kurt on the Nay-sayers, Tommies, and Nancy’s. However, being stuck on lifts with the negativity is painful. “Why don’t they give us a ‘refund’? Passes are so expensive, and there is no fresh snow.” My response: Simply don’t buy a pass, and give up the sport. No one ever guaranteed a bell-to-bell #ColdSmokeWinter; sometimes we have to practice patience and enjoy every day on the Mountain we have. #NeverWasteADay

“If a problem is fixable, if a situation is such that you can do something about it, then there is no need to worry. If it’s not fixable, then there is no help in worrying. There is no benefit in worrying whatsoever.”
— Dalai Lama XIV

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions as of 0516)

  • South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 29ºF

  • Truckee (KTRK): 32ºF

  • Palisades (Siberia 8,700’): 23ºF

  • Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 25ºF

  • KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6 9,100’): 26ºF

  • MammothMtn (Summit 11,034’): 28ºF

Current Regional Winds:

  • HippieHaus: E 7mph

  • Mid-Lake Buoy: ENE 7mph

  • Donner Pass: ENE 10mph

  • Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 18/21mph

  • Palisades (Siberia): E 20/26mph

  • Kirkwood (Chair 6): E 33/45mph

  • Mammoth (Summit): N 10/13mph

📡 The Morning Intel: AFD & OpenSnow Comparison

🔍 Comparison & Key Nuances:

  • NWS Reno (REV): Calls the Monday/Tuesday wave the “appetizer.” They forecast 3-6 inches at lake level and 12-18 inches on ridges by Wednesday. Crucial note: Ridge gusts will hit 75 mph Tuesday night into Wednesday, creating significant travel and lift ops issues.

  • NWS Sacramento (STO): Highlights the “slow-down.” The heaviest snow is now delayed until Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday. They forecast 4-10 inches above 5,000’ and 10-18 inches above 6,000’, with up to 2 feet on peaks. Thunderstorm risk (15-20%) for Tuesday afternoon adds a convective “wildcard.”

  • OpenSnow/B.A.: The outlier (and often the realist). B.A. has downgraded the mid-week forecast significantly, citing a trend where the front “lifts north” of Tahoe on Tuesday. He calls for only 0.6 - 1.2 inches of liquid near the crest (down from 2"+), translating to lower snow totals than the NWS.

  • Consensus: The mid-week storm is tricky. NWS is bullish on travel impacts; OpenSnow is cautious on totals. Both agree the Holiday Weekend Storm (Feb 14-17) is the main event.

⚠️ Weather Advisories

  • Tahoe/Sierra Sector: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday.

  • Mariners: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for Lake Tahoe from 10 PM tonight to 4 PM Wednesday. East winds 10 mph becoming light, but gusty on the ridges.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report

Status: LOW DANGER (#KnowBeforeYouGo)

  • Central Sierra: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

  • Issued: Feb 9 | Expires: Feb 10, 4:00 AM.

  • Author: Brandon Schwartz

  • THE BOTTOM LINE: Avalanches remain unlikely today. Isolated areas exist that hold very thin slabs of wind-drifted snow. If you see cracks or unexpected conditions, consider a different route.

  • Eastside Region: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

  • Issued: Feb 9 | Expires: Feb 10, 7:00 AM.

  • Author: Steve Mace

  • THE BOTTOM LINE: Danger remains low. Monitor for isolated areas of unstable snow in steep or exposed terrain.

✈️ Tahoe Aviation Section

  • Status: MVFR/IFR conditions developing.

  • Details: Light showers moving through this morning will bring mountain obscuration and LLWS. Ridge gusts of 45-50 kts forecast for Tuesday will create moderate to severe turbulence. Accumulating snow at KTRK/KTVL (1-2 inches) expected through Tuesday night.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report

  • Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.54 feet (Delta: +0.01 ft).

  • Water Temp: 43.9ºF (Delta: -0.1ºF).

  • Forecast: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of rain/snow. East winds 10 mph.

  • Advisory: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect tonight through Wednesday. Expect reduced visibility and choppy conditions.

🔭 The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook

  • Monday Night - Wednesday (The Appetizer): Snow levels fluctuate (5,000’ - 7,500’). Total snow: 4-10" (5,000’), 10-18" (6,000’). Travel impacts likely for Tuesday PM/Wednesday AM commute.

  • Thursday - Friday: A lull. Scattered showers linger, but high pressure briefly builds.

  • President’s Weekend (The Main Event): Confidence is 80-90% for a major storm cycle starting Saturday. This system is colder (Aleutian source) and wetter. NWS Reno forecasts a high chance for 2+ FEET of snow. OpenSnow sees potential for 5 inches of liquid (measured in feet of snow) through the holiday week.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop

Weather map showing isobars, precipitation, and temperature across North America, with low and high-pressure systems marked, indicating weather conditions at 12z on February 9, 2026.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)

A weather map of North America showing 500mb height, anomaly, and weather patterns for February 9, 2026. The map indicates a low-pressure system over the Arctic, with cold air and a trough extending into Canada. The U.S. has warmer, higher pressure with ridges, while the eastern coast shows a cyclone with colder air. The map includes lines for geopotential height and anomalies, color-coded for temperature deviations.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

Map showing 96-hour forecasted precipitation across the United States and surrounding areas, with heavy rainfall indicated in red and orange along the West Coast and northeastern regions, and lighter precipitation in green and blue across other areas.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 96-hr Precipitation (Inches)

Map showing total snowfall forecast in inches across California on February 9, 2026, with areas of light snow in the north and central parts of the state.

ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 7 - Day Snow (10:1 ratio) (Inches)

Map of California showing total snow accumulation in inches, with some parts of the state having minimal snow, and others showing up to 0.9 inches.

ECMWF AIFS AI Ens 0.25º - Total Snow (10:1 Ratio) (Inches)

A detailed weather report and wind analysis chart showing wind direction, wind speed, and gust data over a 24-hour period, along with a table of weather observations including timestamp, air temperature, wet bulb temperature, humidity, direction, speed, gusts, volts, and maximum voltage.

Chair Six(6) Ridge 2.7.26 - KirkwoodMtn - 9,100’

Weather map showing 6-hour precipitation, mean sea level pressure, and 850mb temperature over the western United States, with a weather front and high-pressure system indicated.

NAM 3Km 6hr Precip, MSLP, 850mb Temp (Cº)

Weather map of California displaying composite reflectivity and precipitation type on February 7, 2026. The map shows some precipitation in the northwest area, with no significant precipitation across most of the state.

NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type

Map of California showing snow accumulation in inches as of February 8, 2026, with light snow coverage across most of the state.
Map showing snow accumulation in inches across parts of California and surrounding states, with areas of snow coverage in shaded colors near the border with Nevada.

NBM Para v5 2.5km 24-hr Snow (Inches)

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)

Weather map showing 24-hour precipitation in inches across the US West Coast and parts of Oregon and California, with varying levels of rain indicated by colors from light grey (0 inches) to dark purple (over 20 inches).
A weather map showing temperatures across California and surrounding states on February 8, 2026. The map indicates temperatures in Fahrenheit, with colder areas in shades of blue and purple, especially along the coast, and warmer areas in yellow and red further inland. Temperatures range from about 9.1°F to 63.2°F.

NAM 3km | 24hr Precipitation (in)

Weather map showing simulated wind speeds and streamlines over California and surrounding regions at 80 knots, valid for 06z on February 8, 2026. The map includes color-coded wind speeds, with areas of stronger winds indicated by green and lighter shades of blue, and slower winds in darker blue and gray. The map also features isobars and streamlines illustrating airflow patterns.

NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MIN ºf)

NAM 3km | 80m Wind Speeds + Streamlines (kts)

Weather map showing wind shear in knots across the western United States and California, with colors indicating varying wind shear intensity, and contour lines representing different wind speeds and directions.

NAM 3km | 0-6km Wind Shear (kts) + Streamlines

Weather map showing wind speed and streamlines over Western United States, with a low-pressure system over California, a high-pressure system over Nevada, and rain and storms offshore in the Pacific Ocean.

NAM 3km | 925mb Wind (kts) + Streamlines

Map showing snow accumulation in inches across parts of the United States, with some areas experiencing light snowfall. The map covers regions in the western and central U.S., including portions of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and surrounding states, valid for February 8, 2026.
Weather map showing 24-hour snowfall accumulation in inches across parts of the western United States on February 8, 2026. The map highlights a weather system with the highest snowfall of 0.4 inches in southwestern Colorado.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Utah

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Colorado

Weather map showing snow over parts of Idaho and Montana with varying intensities indicated by colors, along with other regions experiencing different weather conditions. The map includes latitude and longitude lines, and a legend at the bottom indicating snow depth in inches.
Weather map showing 24-hour snow accumulation in centimeters across the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, with areas of heavy snowfall in purple and blue, and lighter snow and no snow in gray and white; the map is from February 8, 2026.

NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) WA

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) British Columbia

Weather map showing snow accumulation forecast over the U.S.-Canada border area on February 8, 2026, with snowfall amounts in inches, including some snowfall in the northern Rockies and the northern Great Plains.
Map showing predicted snow accumulation in inches across the northwestern United States on February 8, 2026, with areas of higher snow levels in dark gray, light blue, and purple. The map includes geographic and state boundaries.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Idaho

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Montana

Map showing snow accumulation in inches over a region in the western United States, including parts of Utah, Nevada, and California, valid at noon on February 8, 2026, with some areas experiencing up to approximately 4.8 inches of snow.

NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Wyoming

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