The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: #SoulshineSaturday, February 7, 2026

¡Buenos días, my friends!

Cup'O'Joe in hand, #StokelevelzSolid on a #SoulshineSaturday, Day #2, Stop 5, Tahoe Freeride, IFSA Junior 3-Star. Today, we are in Oly Lady terrain. Yesterday, North Bowl: Snow, Off-Piste - N-Facing Chalky in spots, crunchy, firm & fast in most zones. On-Piste: #EarlyBird gets the #FreshCord, spring-like, firm & fast, softening through the day.

Ok, loads of Nancy’s, Nay-sayers, Karen’s Jerries and Tommies out in the mix, please do yourself a favor, hang-up’yr PowHunt’n tag and go back to your pickle ball tourneys. Please, over’yr whinning, and refund blabber, #SnowLife just isn’t a fit for’ya. DON’T buy a pass next year, and free up some lift space for those who ride.

Now, here we go… There’s a mix of forecasts between the NWS teams in RNO and in SAC. For the first time in 30dayz, the RNO team has detailed a scenario that is quite impressive. NWS - “Details for the Valentine weekend system are still fuzzy, but overall the system does appear colder and more moisture-rich than recent storms. Area passes such as Donner and Fredonyer are currently at a 25-30% chance of receiving 2 feet of fresh snowfall over the weekend. If you have plans that will have you traveling over that weekend, keep an eye on the forecast as we iron out the details of this potentially impactful storm.”

All the current models (as of 0531) are loaded up on the page. I can see from the ECMWF AIFS Ens [M] the flip, and we will need to keep our eyes on the NAM 3km models as we move into the week ahead. No promises, however, and a caveat insert, the #StokeLevel is beginning to rise, my friends…

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions as of 0516)

• South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 25ºF

• Truckee (KTRK): 27ºF

• Palisades (Siberia 8,700’): 35ºF

• Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 33ºF

• KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6 9,100’): 31ºF

• MammothMtn (Summit 11,034’): 25ºF

Current Regional Winds:

• HippieHaus: ESE 3mph

• Mid-Lake Buoy: E 2mph

• Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 8/9mph

• Palisades (Siberia): W 8/9mph

• MammothMtn (Summit): NNE 14/20mph

📡 The Morning Intel: AFD & OpenSnow Comparison

🔍 Comparison & Nuances:

• NWS Reno (REV): For the first time in a month, the RNO office is leaning into an “impactful winter storm” scenario for Valentine’s Day weekend. While they remain cautious about early-week (Mon-Wed) totals (only 0.5-1.5"), they have upgraded the long-range outlook, citing a 25-30% chance for 2 FEET on the passes.

• NWS Sacramento (STO): Focuses on the immediate breakdown of the ridge. They highlight a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms on Monday—a convective threat we haven’t seen in this dry spell.

• OpenSnow (B.A.): Notes a major model shift. The European AI models are signaling a stalled front on Tuesday that could bring 12"+ of snow to the crest SW of the lake.

• Key Differences: REV is more conservative on early-week moisture than OpenSnow, but both are now fully aligned on the Valentine’s Day “Reload” (Feb 14-18).

⚠️ Weather Advisories

• Tahoe Sector: No active advisories.

• Regional Note: Ridge gusts approaching 55 mph Sunday afternoon.

• Sacramento Valley: Patchy morning fog/mist in the northern San Joaquin Valley (KSCK/KMOD) with visibilities as low as 1/4 mile through 18z.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report

Status: LOW DANGER (#KnowBeforeYouGo)

• Central Sierra: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

• Issued: Feb 6, 7:00 AM | Expires: Feb 7, 4:00 AM.

• Author: Andy Anderson

• THE BOTTOM LINE: The limited amount of precipitation that may or may not fall today should not change the fact that avalanches remain unlikely. Factor variable snow, including firm and uneven surfaces, into your plans and monitor the conditions and terrain as you travel. If you see any signs of unstable snow or unexpected conditions, choose a different route.

• Eastside Region: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

• Issued: Feb 6, 7:00 AM | Expires: Feb 7, 7:00 AM.

• Author: Greg Cunningham

• THE BOTTOM LINE: Small amounts of new snow may be enough to create loose dry avalanches in steep terrain today. You’re most likely to find these in areas that receive the high end of the forecasted snow, and where firm snow exists underneath. Keep track of new accumulations throughout the day, and consider the old/new snow interface before committing to steep and exposed slopes.

✈️ Tahoe Aviation:

• Status: VFR across the region, with local morning impacts.

• Details: KTRK has developed FZFG (Freezing Fog) this morning, expected to clear between 17-18z. Haze and slantwise visibility reductions continue for valley terminals (KRNO/KCXP) due to morning inversions. Ridge gusts ramp up to 45+ kts late Sunday.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report

• Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.53 feet (Delta: +0.01 ft).

• Water Temp: 44.1ºF.

• Forecast: Sunny morning, partly cloudy afternoon. Light winds becoming SW 10 mph Sunday.

• Safety Note: If you are going onto the lake - #ColderThanAWellDiggersASS. WEAR a WETTY (4/3 or 5/4) or a Drysuit. File a float plan and use caution.

🛣️ Road Status (as of 0516)

• SR88, HWY50, I-80: No traffic restrictions.

• Live Updates: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

🔭 The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook

• Sunday Transition: Ridging breaks down. Southwest winds increase with gusts to 55 mph on the ridges by the afternoon.

• Monday - Wednesday: A series of shortwaves drop in. Snow levels tumble from 7,500’ Monday to below 4,000’ by Tuesday night. Expect 0.5" to 1.5" of liquid, translating to a “refresher” coat of light, powdery snow.

• Valentine’s Day Weekend (The Reload): A larger, broader trough digging in from the north. Long-range models (MJO Phase 3) suggest a wetter, colder pattern lasting through Feb 18th.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop