The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA
Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
Time: 06:15 PST

¡Buenos días my friends,
Cup’O’Joe in hand, #FreakFlagFly’n Friday, #StokeLevelSolid as we have a break in systems, wet yesterday with high-elevation wet, slop, snow (>8k) and lake-level rains. Break in the weather today, then we move to an active pattern for the next three to four days, bringing periods of significant #MaNatural snowfall late tonight through early Monday, AND, we are actively tracking the POTENTIAL for additional inbound rounds that could deliver a tad-bit more #MaNatural to the region mid-late next week. Snow level guidance has us looking at a roller coaster: 7,500’ to start, then gradually falling in the 6,500’ zone, then flexing up to 7k, and dropping back to around 6k. To be transparent, it’s all good as we need the snow-pack, and the base to bring our resorts, and the region to 100%. Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12 inches are expected above 5,000 feet, with 2 to 4 feet above 6,000 feet (Potentially higher amounts depending on elevation, and aspect). A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the southern Cascades and Sierra above 5,000 feet from 10 PM Friday through 4 PM Monday.

Yesterday, on the Mtn, wet and heavy; carvable, fun, with a 4” surprise (D.O.E.A); it’s good to see the Sierra snowpack begin to come to life and take shape. With the current forecast guidance, this next round could potentially open up new terrain options at our regionals. 2’ to 4’ would set up the resorts perfectly and begin to set the table for some great BC adventures. 2026, starting out strong, let’s be thankful, and get out and enjoy each day, and each turn.

“Our prime purpose in this life is to help others. And if you can’t help them, at least don’t hurt them.”
― Dalai Lama XIV

Tahoe Sector Data (Verified @ 0615 PST)

Regional Temperatures:

• South Lake Tahoe (KTLV) at 6,308’: 32ºF (Freezing Mark)

• Truckee (KTRK) at 5,899’: 34ºF

• Chair 6 Ridge (9,100’): 27.5ºF

• Mammoth Mtn Race (MTH03) at 11,034’: 24ºF (Coldest Spot)

Regional Winds:

• HippieHaus: 205º (SSW) 8mph

• Camp Rich: 204º (SSW) 5mph

• Mid-Lake Buoy: 13º (NNE) 2mph (Light & Variable)

• Truckee: 194º (SSW) 6mph

• Donner Pass: 215º (SW) 12mph

• Kirkwood Ridge: 175º (SSE) 21mph (Breezy start up high)

• Mammoth Race (MTH03): 217º (SSW) 25mph

Roads (CalTrans @ 0501 PST):

• Status: Chains on SR88 - Black Ice - #Slow’yrRoll

• SR88: Chains Required (except 4WD with snow tires) from 6.3 mi east of Peddler Hill to 5 mi west of Picketts Jct.

• HWY 50: No restrictions reported.

• I-80: DENSE FOG ADVISORY in effect (Solano/Yolo to Sac/Placer line). Drive with caution.

• QuickMap: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

Weather Ahead: The Weekend Hammer

⚠️ Weather Advisories (UPDATED):

• WINTER STORM WARNING: Effective Midnight Tonight to 10 AM PST Monday (Tahoe Basin & Mono County).

• WINTER STORM WARNING (West Slope): Effective 10 PM Friday to 4 PM PST Monday.

• FLOOD WATCH: Effective Saturday Morning through Monday Afternoon (NE California - Lassen/Plumas/Sierra) due to Rain on Snow potential.

• LAKE WIND ADVISORY: Effective 4 AM Saturday to 1 PM Sunday (Tahoe).

• WIND ADVISORY: Effective 10 PM Friday to 4 AM Sunday (Sac Valley/Foothills).

The NWS Deep Dive (REV vs. STO):
The “break” is brief. Both offices align on a major, moisture-laden system impacting us starting tonight.

1. The Snow Level Roller Coaster:

• The Nuance: NWS Reno (REV) highlights a tricky “bounce” in snow levels. Levels drop to ~6,500’ tonight, bounce back up to 7,500’ Saturday afternoon (warm air advection), then crash to 6,000’ Saturday night and 5,500’ Sunday.

• The “Snain” Factor: This fluctuation means Saturday will likely see Rain or Snain at lake level and resort bases (6,200’-7,000’). NWS Sacramento (STO) agrees, keeping snow levels at 6,500-7,500’ Saturday morning before the drop.

• Flood Risk: Both offices warn of Areal Flooding (Susan/Feather Rivers) if heavy precip aligns with the high snow levels Saturday.

2. The Totals (The Stoke):

• NWS Sacramento: Forecasting 2 to 4 feet of snow above 6,000’ (locally higher at peaks). 6-12" above 5,000’.

• NWS Reno: Forecasting 1 to 3 feet with up to 4 feet possible for Mono County.

• Snow Quality: Expect “High Density” (#GorillaSnot) at 7-10:1 ratios on Saturday, transitioning to lighter #ColdSmokePow (13:1) by Sunday/Monday as colder air arrives.

3. The Winds:

• Ridge Gusts: 70-90 mph, with gusts hitting 100 mph on Sunday (REV).

• Valley Gusts: Southerly gusts up to 35-45 mph (STO) and 40 mph (REV) Saturday.

Sierra Avalanche Centers

Central Sierra (Tahoe/Carson Pass):

• Status: Wet Snow Instability

• Issued: Thursday, Jan 1 (Expires: Friday, Jan 2 @ 04:00 AM).

• The Bottom Line: Anticipate wet snow avalanches today due to rain-on-snow. Above the rain line, slab avalanches are possible in wind-loaded gullies/leeward slopes. Move cautiously where wet snow or drifts exist.

• Link: Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast

Eastside Region (Mammoth):

• Status: Complex (Wind & Wet)

• Issued: Thursday, Jan 1 (Expires: Friday, Jan 2 @ 07:00 AM).

• The Bottom Line: Avalanches large enough to bury you are likely on wind-loaded slopes at higher elevations. Rain at lower elevations brings loose wet avalanche danger. Step back and increase safety margins today.

• Link: Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast

✈️ Aviation Section

Current Status: VFR (Deteriorating Late)

• Conditions: VFR prevails for Western NV terminals today. KTRK (Truckee) may see patchy Freezing Fog (FZFG) early this morning if clouds break.

• The Shift: Southerly winds increase by 21Z (1 PM). By 00Z (4 PM), expect LLWS (Low-Level Wind Shear) and turbulence to develop.

• Hazards: Mountain obscuration becomes widespread late Friday/Saturday. Ridge gusts to 60 kts tonight.

⚓ Tahoe Mariners Forecast

Advisories: WINTER STORM WARNING (Midnight Tonight - Mon AM). LAKE WIND ADVISORY (Sat 4 AM - Sun 1 PM).

• Today: Mostly cloudy -> Partly cloudy. Light winds. Highs ~45.

• Tonight: Rain/Snow chance. South winds increasing to 10-15 mph, gusts to 35 mph after midnight. Waves up to 2 feet.

• Saturday: Rain and Snow. Gusts to 30 mph.

• Water Temp: 45.9ºF.

The Bottom Line: Enjoy the break today, my friends. Use this window to prep the gear, clear the drives, shovel the decks, and get the mind right. The #MaNatural hose turns back on tonight, and it’s going to be a wild, windy, and wet-to-white ride through the weekend. 2-4 Feet is the target—let’s manifest it.

Stay’nThirsty for POW,

Coop | RS#69