The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025

¡Buenos días, my friends! Cup'O'Joe in hand, it's #TheologianThursday, #StokeLevelSolid.

Mountain Operations Teams are winding down their overnight ops this morning, having pushed hard through the night. The story today is the anticipation of a warming trend kicking in through the weekend. While it's chilly this morning—19º at the #HippieHaus, 18º up in Truckee (KTRK), and 32º at the Kirkwood base (WetBuld 22.5), we're looking at temperatures climbing.

We are tracking periods of gusty ridgetop winds and the potential for light showers, mainly impacting areas well north of us and near the Oregon border. While the ridge sticks around, guidance hints at shortwaves infiltrating the northern periphery, which could deliver a showery pattern (<20% probability) by the end of next week.

A sobering forecast: Almost all ensembles are in agreement on the dry pattern continuing. Some of the AI models have been 'hinting' at a return to westerly flow by mid-December, but those are the way’the heck out there guidance models. So, my friends, patience for #MotherNature's return to the Sierra, and Gratitude for the Mtn Teams, Snowmakers, CAT Ops, Lifites, and all that are working around the clock to get open for our riding pleasure.

And to be quite frank and transparent, if you have an Epic, Ikon, Cali, or Pow Alliance pass, maybe its time for a Pre-Season roady POWHunt'n adventure, Whistler has 14/34 lifts, and 22 trails, Steamboat has 5/23 lifts with a 2' dump in the forecast, back East, Jay Peak has over 6' and Snowbowl in AZ over 60" with 2" in the past 24hrs. Just say'n…

Today's Intel:

🚠 Lifts Spinning: MammothMtn, Heavenly, Mt. Rose, Boreal.

❄️ Snowmaking: Windows are shrinking as temps warm up, but teams maximized the recent cold snap.

⚠️ Wind Watch: Ridge gusts increasing over the weekend as the northern system brushes by.

The RS Mindset: It's a time for patience. The storm door #NotOpen. So, we celebrate the work of the Mtn ops teams and enjoy the clear skies and warmer temps. The #EarlyBird gets the fresh cord…

Looking forward to the next 3–7 days:

• Potential Rain and Snow Outlook: Dry Pattern Dominates. A weak system brushes by this weekend, but impacts will likely stay north (Shasta County). We remain dry for the foreseeable future.

  Long Range Intel:

• The Weekend: A stronger system moves into the PacNW on Saturday, bringing a slight chance of showers to the far north but leaving us dry.

• Next Week: The upper pattern changes very little. Ridging over CA keeps us dry with occasional morning fog in the valleys.

• Mid-December: Ensembles agree on the dry pattern continuing. Some AI models hint (🤣) at a return to westerly flow by mid-December, but confidence is low.

• Snow Levels: N/A

• Temperatures: Warming Trend. Highs will rebound to normal or slightly above normal (50s to around 60) for the next 7 days. Lows will be in the 30s/40s.

• Winds / Wind Conditions: Decreasing. The northerly flow that brought the dry air is decreasing. Winds become light in the valleys, though mountain gusts (10-20 kts) linger into Thursday morning.

• Road Conditions: ALL CLEAR. No chain controls on 50, 80, or 88. Watch for brake checks on I-80 West.

The Weather Ahead | Temperatures | Winds | Winter

Forecasted Temperatures (Today's High / Tonight's Low):

• #HippieHaus (SLT / 6,380'): 48° / 25°

• Kirkwood (Base / 7,800'): 43° / 31°

• Truckee (North Shore / 5,800'): 45° / 24°

• Mammoth Mtn (Base / 8,900'): 45° / 26°

Timing of wind direction/wind speeds: Northerly winds decreasing today. Light winds prevail through the weekend, with potential for breezy ridge winds Saturday.

Seven(7) Day forecast (Lake Level Highs/Lows):

• Today (Thu): 48° / 25° (Partly Sunny)

• Friday: 55° / 29° (Sunny, Warmer)

• Saturday: 46° / 33° (Partly Sunny)

• Sunday: 47° / 33° (Cloudy)

• Monday: 48° / 34° (Partly Sunny)

• Tuesday: 51° / 37° (Cloudy, Mild)

• Wednesday: 52° / 37° (Mostly Cloudy)

Sierra Avalanche Centers:

Sierra Avalanche Center (Tahoe / Carson Pass):

• Expires: Friday, Dec 5 at 4:00 PM.

• Status: #LowTide.

• Hazard: #SnowSharks.

• Discussion: Shallow snowpack with exposed obstacles. Avalanche concerns are limited to isolated wind-drifts.

• Link: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center (Mammoth Zone):

• Expires: Friday, Dec 5 at 12:00 PM.

• Status: #LowTide.

• Hazard: #SnowSharks.

• Discussion: Thin coverage. Areas with adequate snow are confined to shaded upper slopes.

• Link: https://bit.ly/EasternSierraAvalancheForecast

⚓ Marine Forecast for Lake Tahoe:

• Status: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

• TODAY: Partly cloudy AM then clearing. Light winds. Highs around 48. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

• TONIGHT: Clear. Light winds. Lows 25-35. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

• FRIDAY: Sunny. Light winds. Highs around 55.

• Water Temp: 49.4°F.

• Mariner Note: Cold Water Safety: 4/3 or 5/4 wetsuit highly recommended for any SUP/Kayak, Surf, or Foil activity.

✈️ Aviation Forecast (Detailed for Pilots):

• KTRK (Truckee): VFR prevailing. Watch for potential morning freezing fog (FZFG).

• KTVL (South Lake Tahoe): VFR. Mostly clear skies.

• Winds: Decreasing northerly flow. Gusts up to 20-30 kts becoming light.

Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) Summaries

For #HippieHaus & Mammoth (NWS Reno):

• Discussion: "Warming trend through the weekend." Today is chilly, but temperatures will trend warmer, reaching near-average today and above-average by the weekend (Sierra valleys: upper 50s/low 60s).

• Weak System: A breakdown in the ridge allows light showers to filter over northern Washoe/Lassen counties this weekend, but amounts will be light.

• Long Range: Dry weather reemerges as the dominant pattern next week.

For Carson Pass / KirkwoodMtn Zone (NWS Sacramento):

• Valley Focus: Periods of clouds, mist, or fog in the Central Valley.

• Mountain Focus: Normal temperatures for the next 7 days. Dry weather continues for the foreseeable future.

Summary: On this #TheologianThursday, we accept the pattern we are given. It's dry, it's warming up, and the sun is out. While we wait for the mid-December shift, we enjoy the access and the work our Mtn Teams have put in. Get out there, find your line, and keep the faith.

Stay'nThirsty for POW

Coop | RS#69

POWHUNT’n 24hr Snowfall Guidance West