The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA
Date: Friday, January 16, 2026
Time: 05:01PST

¡Buenos días my friends,
Cup’O’Joe in hand, #FreakFlagFly’nFriday, #StokeLevelSolid at 12.2, Skied at Heavenly yesterday for a on-the-chair meeting, making a few hot-laps in Oly, Comet, Dipper zones. Snow is good, very carvalicious on-piste, off-piste variable, some awesome wind-affect, some firm zones. Upper zones #MaNatural, lower zones (down towards Boulder/Stage), machine-made mix, and firm. All in all, I would give’r a 8/10 for conditions. Note: Where the mtn-teams are dropping tillers, the snow’s awesome, temps rising is going to begin affecting the off-piste terrain, look for the wind-buff (light easts the past few dayz has the snow holding) however, I do see a change coming, switching from soft and schmoo, to firm & fast…

MLK weekend is here, make sure if you need to make a parking rezy, you do at the resorts that require rezy’s. Maybe, make the trek to a few smaller, Indy’s this weekend, Tahoe Donner, Diamond Peak, Homewood, Sierra, or down off the Hwy4 zone to Bear, or Dodge, or if you want to really step off the path here in NorCal, drop on down to China Peak and spend the weekend in the CP lodge. The ride is about adventures, creating new experiences for the fam. We/you have options, a whole load of unexplored terrain, and Mtn cultures await your arrival here in the Sierra. #NeverWasteADay, get out and go in search of.

“People take different roads seeking fulfillment and happiness. Just because they’re not on your road doesn’t mean they’ve gotten lost.”
― Dalai Lama XIV

Current Sector Data (Verified @ 04:45 PST)

Regional Temperatures (Inversion Alert!):

  • South Lake Tahoe (KTLV) at 6,308’: 17ºF

  • Truckee (KTRK) at 5,899’: 14ºF

  • Palisades - Siberia (8,700’): 32ºF

  • Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 31ºF

  • KirkwoodMtn Chair 6 (9,100’): 38.5ºF

  • MammothMtn Summit (11,034’): 31ºF

Regional Winds:

  • HippieHaus: E 7mph

  • Camp Rich: E 7mph

  • Mid-Lake Buoy (NW): E 7mph

  • Truckee: E 6mph

  • Donner Pass: ENE 8mph

  • Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward): WNW 39/45mph (Breezy up-top)

  • Palisades (Siberia): E 33/37mph

  • KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6): E 16/22mph

  • MammothMtn Summit: NNE 9/14mph

Roads (CalTrans @ 0601 PST):

  • Status: Clear & Open.

  • SR88: No traffic restrictions reported.

  • HWY 50: No traffic restrictions reported.

  • I-80: Commercial Truck Advisory: Westbound trucks required to stop at brake check area 0.5 mi west of Nyack to reduce risk of brake fires.

  • Valley Commuters: Watch for patches of dense fog if driving up through the Central Valley/Delta this morning.

  • QuickMap: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

Weather Ahead: The “What You See Is What You Get” Weekend

⚠️ Weather Advisories:

  • None Active in the Sierra.

  • Watch Out: Patchy Freezing Fog (FZFG) remains a hazard for Truckee/Martis Valley and Mono Lake areas.

The NWS Deep Dive (REV vs. STO):
The forecast theme is persistence. The High Pressure ridge is calling the shots, but we have some subtle changes in the wind profile today.

1. The Winds (Easing Off):

  • Change from Yesterday: NWS Reno (REV) notes that while Sierra ridge gusts were strong overnight (45-60 mph), they will diminish by this afternoon.

  • The Weekend: Winds will remain light through the holiday weekend as the ridge axis lines up along the Sierra crest. This is great news for lift ops.

2. The Inversion Continues:

  • NWS Reno (REV): It’s “Stuck on Repeat.” Valleys stay cold/hazy (teens/20s overnight), while areas above the inversion (and outside the fog) enjoy the 50s and 60s.

  • Mono Lake & Truckee: The “soup” continues. Freezing fog is keeping highs near freezing in Mono Basin.

  • NWS Sacramento (STO): Agrees on the pattern, noting valley highs in the mid-60s below the foothills, but cooler temps lingering where fog is stubborn.

3. The Long Range (Trending Drier):

  • The Update: The potential storm for late next week (Thu/Fri) is trending drier.

  • The Reality: REV states ensemble guidance now shows only a 10-20% chance of light showers, mostly confined to high elevations. This system looks weak and may struggle to scour out the inversions.

Sierra Avalanche Centers

Central Sierra (Tahoe/Carson Pass):

  • Status: Low / Unlikely

  • Issued: Thursday, Jan 15 (Expires: Friday, Jan 16 @ 4:00 AM).

  • Author: Steve Reynaud

  • The Bottom Line: Avalanche activity is unlikely today. However, variable snow surfaces exist due to wind, sun, and warm temps. Choose appropriate terrain and watch for isolated hazards.

  • Link: Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast

Eastside Region (Mammoth):

  • Status: Low / Wet Loose Concern

  • Issued: Thursday, Jan 15 (Expires: Friday, Jan 16 @ 7:00 AM).

  • Author: Greg Cunningham

  • The Bottom Line: Generally stable. You can find small, wet loose instabilities on SW, S, and SE slopes near/below treeline. Avoid being below these slopes during the heat of the day.

  • Link: Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center Forecast

✈️ Aviation Section

Current Status: VFR (Localized FZFG)

  • The Hazard: Patchy Freezing Fog at KTRK (Truckee). Currently affecting the terminal (08Z-16Z).

  • The Change: As East winds die down later today, fog coverage at KTRK could actually increase tonight into Saturday morning, lingering until 17-18Z.

  • Turbulence: Sierra ridge gusts (up to 45kt) this morning will decrease later today, reducing the turbulence risk for trans-Sierra flights.

⚓ Tahoe Mariners Forecast

Advisory: None.

  • Today: Sunny. East winds around 10 mph in the morning, becoming light. Highs around 48. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

  • Tonight: Clear. Light winds. Lows 26-33. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

  • Saturday: Sunny. Light winds. Highs around 50. Wave Heights < 1 foot.

  • Water Temp: 44.3ºF.

The Bottom Line: The “Freak Flag” winds are settling down, setting the stage for a mellow, sunny, and inverted MLK weekend. The key to success is timing: hit the piste early for #FreshCord, then go in search of and hunt the north-facing wind-buffity before the sun softens things up too much. It’s a great weekend to explore and go find those hidden gems.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop | RS#69

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ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day

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ECMWF AIFS AI - 0.25º Precipitable Water (Inches)

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ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 72hr Precipitation (Inches)

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Chair Six(6) Ridge 1.16.26 - KirkwoodMtn - 9,100’

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NAM 3Km 6hr Precip, MSLP, 850mb Temp (Cº)

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NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type

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Map of California and surrounding states showing snow accumulation forecast in inches, with no significant snow predicted.

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NAM 3km | 24hr Precipitation (in)

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NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MIN ºf)

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