The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch

Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA

Date: #SuperCalifragilisticSunday, February 8, 2026

¡Buenos días, my friends!

Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokelevelzSolid on a #SuperCalifragilisticSunday. Day #3, Stop 5, IFSA 3-Star at Palisades on-tap—it’s the #BigShow with all of the West’s best youth athletes ready to give it their all on C2 today! Weather, well, let’s see… yep, SNOW! Yes, #MotherNature, Üllr, and ole King Neptune are back, setting up for a #Refresh here in the Sierra.

Snow totals are starting to align, and while I’m rallying back to Squaw for the comp, here is the lowdown: Today brings a chance of light precipitation north of I-80. Snow levels remain high (7,000-8,000’+), so expect rain/snain initially. But keep your eyes on the horizon—we have a two-round set Tuesday/Wednesday, followed by a heavy hitter for the holiday weekend. Oh, and you, Nancy’s, Naysayers, and Kooks? Stay home! Parking is reserved for #LocalsOnly this week.

Note on Timing: I ‘m a lil-pressed for time this morning, have to get my getty-up on and rally back up to Squaw for the #BigShow. I will post-up the latest models this evening when I get back to the #HippieHaus tonight and update the forecast. Stay tuned!

🌡️ Regional Pulse (Current Conditions as of 0516)

• South Lake Tahoe (KTLV): 25ºF

• Truckee (KTRK): 23ºF

• Palisades (Siberia 8,700’): 34ºF

• Alpine Meadows (Mt Ward 8,643’): 34ºF

• KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6 9,100’): 35ºF

• MammothMtn (Summit 11,034’): 32ºF

Current Regional Winds:

• HippieHaus / Donner Pass: SW 7-8mph

• Palisades (Siberia): WSW 16/22mph

• Alpine Meadows (Ward): N 16/20mph

• MammothMtn (Summit): N 13/17mph

📡 The Morning Intel: AFD & OpenSnow Comparison

🔍 Comparison & Key Nuances:

• NWS Reno (REV): Significantly upgraded snow totals overnight. Now forecasting 5-10 inches at lake level and 15-20 inches for the passes (Donner/Carson) by Wednesday. They’ve flagged the Wednesday morning commute as a major concern.

• NWS Sacramento (STO): Issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting Monday night. They’ve increased the probability of thunderstorms for Tuesday to 15%, warning of “slippery travel” even in the valleys.

• OpenSnow/B.A. Summary: All models are finally converging on the mid-week refresh. While today is a “dusting” at best, the Tuesday/Wednesday wave is the appetizer for the Valentine’s Day “Reload.”

• Key Changes: Models have slowed the system, concentrating the heaviest snowfall into the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning window.

⚠️ Weather Advisories

• Tahoe/Sierra Sector: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday.

• Aviation: LLWS and turbulence will increase this afternoon as ridge winds hit 40-50 kts.

❄️ Sierra Avalanche Center Report

Status: LOW DANGER (#KnowBeforeYouGo)

• Central Sierra: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

• Issued: Feb 7 | Expires: Feb 8, 4:00 AM.

• Author: Andy Anderson

• THE BOTTOM LINE: Most avalanche activity should remain unlikely today. Small, shallow areas of wind-drifted snow may lurk on isolated terrain. Monitor for cracks in the snow or unexpected conditions.

• Eastside Region: https://bit.ly/SierraAvyForecast

• Issued: Feb 7 | Expires: Feb 8, 7:00 AM.

• Author: Greg Cunningham

• THE BOTTOM LINE: Danger remains low. A trace to 2 inches of new snow fell yesterday. Look out for fresh, small drifts on top of old, variable surfaces.

✈️ Tahoe Aviation Section

• Status: VFR this morning, but deteriorating by 21Z.

• Details: Valley haze clears as winds increase. LLWS and mountain wave turbulence will be a factor this afternoon on 40-50 kt ridge winds. Expect conditions to trend toward MVFR/IFR by Monday evening.

⚓ Mariners & Lake Level Report

• Lake Level (Tahoe City): 6,227.53 feet (Delta: 0.00 ft).

• Water Temp: 44.0ºF (Delta: -0.1ºF).

• Forecast: Sunny start, becoming partly cloudy. SW winds 10 mph this afternoon, gusts to 20 mph tonight.

🔭 The Weather Ahead: Detailed Outlook

• Monday Night - Wednesday: The First Wave. Snow levels drop from 8,000’ to 4,500’. Total liquid (SWE) of 1.0" to 1.5". Expect 10-18 inches of snow total across the sector.

• Thursday - Friday: A brief lull, but cold snow showers will linger as the shortwave exits.

• Valentine’s/President’s Weekend: The Main Event. Confidence is increasing for a significantly colder and wetter system arriving Friday night. Travel impacts for the holiday weekend could be major.

Stay’nThirsty for POW

Coop