ALERT ~ Certifiable #ColdSmokeThursday
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ALERT ~ Certifiable #ColdSmokeThursday 〰️
The Morning Intel | Tahoe Sector Watch
Location: #HippieHaus | South Lake Tahoe, CA
Date: Thursday, January 8, 2026
Time: 05:46 PST
#ColdSmokeTheologianThursday Intro:
¡Buenos días my friends,
Cup’O’Joe in hand, #StokeLevel 13, as we have 3" to 4" of #CertifiedColdSmoke on the deck here at the #HippieHaus, 4" to 8" regionally at elevation, depending on aspect, and zone. Not a super deep-day, but a certifiable #ColdSmokeThursday alert is being issued!
Temps regionally are in the low 20’s at lake level, upper Mtns in the teens. Winds light to start, gusty across the ridges as the LP moves eastward, and a HP builds/settles across the west. The CPC keeps us dry through next week. A nice break in the action, letting the pack settle up. TODAY, it’s time to get out and get’cha some, my friends, South Shore, North Shore, MammothMtn, Dodge, Bear, China Peak, it’s all good, and it’s a #ColdSmokeThursday with an awesome weekend of sunshine and mid-winter snow ahead! I’ll see you on the Mtn. At Palisades this weekend for the TJFS Stop#2!
Current Sector Data (Verified @ 0615 PST)
Regional Temperatures:
South Lake Tahoe (KTLV) at 6,308’: 19ºF
Truckee (KTRK) at 5,899’: 23ºF
Palisades - Siberia (8,700’): 12ºF
Alpine Meadows (Scott Top 8,120’): 14ºF
KirkwoodMtn Chair 6 (9,100’): 10ºF
MammothMtn Summit (11,034’): 8ºF
Regional Winds (The Engine Room):
HippieHaus: NW 8mph
Camp Rich: NW 8mph
Mid-Lake Buoy (NW): NW 7mph
Truckee: WNW 5mph
Donner Pass: NW 1mph (Calm at the pass)
Alpine Meadows (Scott Top): WSW 21/29mph
Palisades (Siberia): ENE 6/11mph
KirkwoodMtn (Chair 6): NE 10/18mph
MammothMtn Summit: SSW 35/45mph
Roads (CalTrans @ 0601 PST):
Status: Slick & Chain Controlled
SR88: Chains Required (except 4WD w/snow tires) from Dew Drop to 3.5 mi east of Woodfords.
HWY 50: Chains Required (except 4WD w/snow tires) from 1.5 mi west of Kyburz to Meyers AND Twin Bridges to Meyers.
I-80: Chains Required (except 4WD w/snow tires) Eastbound: Baxter to NV State Line / Westbound: NV State Line to Baxter.
QuickMap: https://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/
Weather Ahead: The Cold Clear-Out
⚠️ Weather Advisories:
LAKE WIND ADVISORY: Effective until 7 AM PST this morning (Tahoe Basin).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: Effective until 7 AM PST this morning (Tahoe/Truckee zones).
NOTE: Advisories are expiring this morning as the system exits.
The NWS Deep Dive (REV vs. STO):
The storm door is closing, and the refrigerator door is opening. We are transitioning from a quick-hitting snowfall event to a period of cold, clear high pressure.
1. The Exit Strategy (Today):
NWS Reno (REV): The frontal passage that brought overnight snow is moving southeast. Snow showers will dissipate this morning. Expect a “slick surface to contend with” on walkways and decks.
NWS Sacramento (STO): Notes that while the system was weak/fast-moving, it dropped light accumulations (4-8" above 5000’ was the forecast) and is now exiting. Sky should clear out today.
2. The Deep Freeze (Tonight/Friday AM):
Nuance Alert: REV is calling for the “coldest readings yet this year” tonight. Western Nevada valleys will drop into the teens/low 20s, and Sierra valleys will be chilled to the single digits.
Tactical Tip: If you have early ops tomorrow or are heading to the hill, bring the extra layers. It’s going to be bitterly cold.
3. The Outlook (The Weekend & Beyond):
A strong ridge builds in starting Friday. This brings warmer air aloft (inversions) and clear skies.
The Weekend: Sunny with a chill at night.
Next Week: High confidence in continued dry weather with high pressure dominating.
Sierra Avalanche Centers
Central Sierra (Tahoe/Carson Pass):
Status: Moderate / Low Transition
Issued: Wednesday, Jan 7 (Expires: Thursday, Jan 8 @ 4:00 AM).
The Bottom Line: Triggering an avalanche is becoming more difficult, but is still possible on steep slopes where wind-blown snow has filled features. Caution is advised near cornices and wind pillows.
Eastside Region (Mammoth):
Status: Wind Slab Hazard
Issued: Wednesday, Jan 7 (Expires: Thursday, Jan 8 @ 7:00 AM).
The Bottom Line: Strong southwest winds created reactive wind slabs. You are most likely to encounter avalanches near and above treeline. Deep persistent slabs remain a low-probability but high-consequence concern.
✈️ Aviation Section
Current Status: Improving from MVFR/IFR to VFR
Conditions: Snow accumulations affecting terminals early, but clearing expected past KTRK/KTVL by 12-13Z (4-5 AM). KMMH (Mammoth) clears by 15-16Z.
Winds: Northerly winds follow the front. Ridge gusts of 40-50 kts (Northeasterly) expected this afternoon.
Hazards: LLWS (Low-Level Wind Shear) will develop along and west of the crest, but not directly overhead of Sierra terminals.
⚓ Tahoe Mariners Forecast
Advisory: LAKE WIND ADVISORY (Expires 7 AM PST Today).
Today: Partly cloudy -> Clearing. Northwest winds 10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph, shifting Northeast PM. Waves 1-3 feet.
Tonight: Clear & Cold. East winds around 10 mph. Gusts to 25 mph, decreasing late. Waves < 1 foot.
Friday: Sunny. Light winds.
Water Temp: 44.9ºF.
The Bottom Line: Solid 4” to 8” #FreshCoat of #MaNatural overnight. #StokeLevelMath - Fresh snow x cold temps, and clearing skies = 13!. The roads are slightly less than ideal this morning, so take it slow. Caltrans and County Plow ops are underway, the reward is a #ColdSmokeThursday on the mountain, followed by a pristine weekend ahead. Bundle up, butter-cups—it’s gonna be a chilly one on the line!
Stay’nThirsty for POW,
Coop | RS#69
ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 6-hr Precip (in.), MSLP (hPa), 850mb Temp.(ºC)
ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 500mb Height (dam) and Anomaly - 5 day
ECMWF AIFS AI - 0.25º Precipitable Water (Inches)
ECMWF AIFS AI [M] 0.25º 24hr Precipitation (Inches)
ECMWF AIFS AI Ens 0.25º - Probability of 24hr QPF >1” (%)
Chair Six(6) Ridge 1.8.26 - KirkwoodMtn - 9,100’
NAM 3Km 6hr Precip, MSLP, 850mb Temp (Cº)
NAM 3km Composite Reflectivity + Precip Type
NBM Para v5 2.5km 24-hr Snow (Inches)
NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (Kuchera Ratio) (Inches)
NAM 3km | 24hr Precipitation (in)
NAM 3km | 2m Temperatures - MIN ºf)
NAM 3km | 80m Wind Speeds + Streamlines (kts)
NAM 3km | 0-6km Wind Shear (kts) + Streamlines
NAM 3km | 925mb Wind (kts) + Streamlines
NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Utah
NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) Colorado
NAM 3km | 24-hr Snow (Inches) WA
NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) British Columbia
NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Idaho
NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Montana
NAM 3km | 24hr Snow (10:1 Ratio) Wyoming